Sunday, March 29, 2009

Work week ahead: Some what unsettled.....then ridging?

From what is seen in the this afternoons 12z/18zGFS models is that we will remain in cool NWLY flow with thicknesses in the 530`s/540`s with showers at times with highs in the mid-upper 40`s to around 50. However, looks like a couple weak systems slide through here for the work week and the first one appears to come through for Tue with rain and showers likely. Wed probably a day with some showers here/there and maybe a sun break or two. Then for Thurs, looks like yet another system comes through for the increased risk of rain during the day Thurs with shower following behind that system. And for Fri into the weekend, a weak ridge of around 1020mb builds toward our region and then slides through Western Wa on Sat along with rising 500mb heights into the mid-upper 550`s. Though thicknesses only appear to be in the lower 540`s, but 850mb temps do rise a bit and up to about +3c or so. However at surface for Sat, there looks to be SELY flow with 10m temps near 10c. So for right now and given what is shown, think low-mid 50`s seem okay. Increasing clouds and showers look to be back with us for Sun/Mon following week as a weakening, yet elongated trough moves over the PNW.

Checking Tonights 00zGFS, it`s still shows a ridge moving in for later Fri into Sat with upper level heights in the upper 550`s, though thicknesses stay in the lower 540`s. 850mb temp do still look to rise a bit though and show around +3c with SW-SSW flow just above the surface. Also to note is that is that MRF-MOS seems to be in line with my thoughts tonight of highs being in the mid 50`s. Should also note that 12z/18zensemble charts along with 12zEURO also showing a ridge for the weekend as well.

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