Good afternoon to all.
From what the latest models show, it appears a coolish trough(seen currently on inferred satellite) will be coming through tomorrow afternoon as shown by the 500mb chart for 2pm Sun. So some showers will be likely through the day, however the low level cool air at 925/ 850mb level comes into our region for the evening hours with 925mb temps falling to about -2c and 850mb temps falling to about -6 or -7c late tomorrow night into
early hours of Monday morning. So might could see a little mixed precip on the higher hills during this time as any left over showers fade away tomorrow night as most shower activity looks to be during the mid afternoon hours of when the front comes through(see 3hr precip chart for 2pm Sun).Now as far as snow goes, it does look like the possibility is there as another system invades our region for during the day Monday on cool NW-WNW flow aloft, however it looks to be marginal at best and very spotty. So if any snow does fall, it`ll be during the early morning hours.
The Mon-Wed period looks to be a bit showery and unsettled as remain in cool NW-NNWLY flow with thicknesses in the mid 520 to 530`s, however we might start to dry out by around late week as GFS/GEM/MRF/Canadian/ EURO models show a weak ridge of sorts over our region for a day or so. But we`ll see how the models play the possible ridging.
In the satellite pic, I should mention that those two weak lows with in the trough look to fade into one weak low and head into Oregon or California. If you play the loop, you can see the first low looks to be weakening. Hope this entry was`nt to long for you all. :o)
On a side note..... any comments/thoughts about the first half of the week and the snow possibilty in the lowlands?
Hi Andy, Is there any possibility of 4-5 inches of new snow Mon-Tues at Crystal Mtn.?
ReplyDeleteWell I would say it`s possible to get at least a few inches in that area and the mountain passes, but from what the WRF shows, it would perhaps be during the later afternoon/evening hours of when the front moves over the mountains. And from what the 24hr snow fall shows from Mon morning to Tue afternoon shows over a foot of new snow over the Cascades.
ReplyDeleteI'm predicting 1-2 inches of snow tomorrow in Olympia.
ReplyDeleteAndy,
ReplyDeleteI just read the NWS forecast discussion, and it seems as though with a bit of elevation, Wednesday morning could be a could bet if a PSCZ develops. I have yet to look at the models about this. What do you think?
Well I think with the incoming frontal system, that PSCZ will most likely weaken due shifting of the winds, and could see possibly a rain/snow mix on the higher and away from the sound. From what the UW NAM/GFS 12z shows, 850mb temps are between -6 and -7c with 925mb temps at or just slightly below 0c through at least late morning. even the 1000ft temps drop to about 34 degrees. However winds at surface during the morning hours are light and southerly up through 925mb with 850mb being out of the SW.
ReplyDeleteSo though these models have difficulty placing snow, think given the cooler shown to pass through for early tomorrow, some places could see a little snow or a rain/ snow mix as already mentioned.