
What we are left with is a some what unstable air mass with spotty showers around. Much like today if you were under any. And if you see on the enhanced inferred satellite imagery of tonight(9pm update), there is an area of weak low pressure currently off the Southern OR/ Northern California coast. Per OPC(Ocean Prediction Center) this area of low pressure is proged to move NNWRD up the off shore waters of the OR/WA coast a little bit over next day or so and then dissipate as an even weaker low as it sinks back southward due to the forecasted trough possibly coming down from the north later this week. So over next couple days, we should see some showers at times with S-SSW flow at the surface and aloft. With this flow aloft, highs should be mild with highs in the 50`s. Mid-upper 50`s depending on how much sunshine you get. So showers and some sunbreaks seems a pretty good bet.
And then as mentioned above, there is the forecasted deep and cold trough over the weekend, that if it does land over our region as shown, we could be looking at some rather low snow levels with spotty lowland snow. With such a COLD upper level low shown to slide over us over the weekend, there is also the possibility of convective type showers that could produce some ice pellet showers. Though one thing is for sure and if nothing else, the moutains will surely be getting snow at times, though perhaps not heavy, but the shower type variety. So could be an interesting weekend taken for what the models are worth. But on the other hand, GEM/EURO are kinda ridgy for later this week. So we`ll see how things go.
Okay, think I`ve said enough about the models for tonight, but go ahead and post and feel free to comment, ask questions, post weather obs, ect. Have fun!
Thanks for a great blog. I follow yours and Cliff's blog and with all the info weather has never been so much fun to follow. It's renewed my passion for weather.I have noticed that both of you are right more then the main stream media forecasters. How mucn percentage of snow chances are there for Thursday morning??
ReplyDeleteRob...when you ask about snow chances for Thurs morning, I`m guessing you mean pre-dawn or shortly after sunrise.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I`m not good at percents, but going on the WRF alone, I would say a small chance of say around 20%. Main push and or punch of modified cold air comes in late Thurs afternoon, and by this time, 850mb humidity fields are quickly drying out with precip out of here by lunch time. And 925mb are just starting to drop below 0c by sunrise or shortly there after and same with 850mb temps. Though there could be some wet snow flakes mixed as the precip starts end early Thurs afternoon, but again, probably a small chance right now.
Hey Andy. How cold could it get on Sunday? Also, if it does get cold, how long would it stay cold for? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteBrett,
ReplyDeleteFrom what was seen on yesterdays models and from I am thinking, I would say no colder than the mid 30`s with lows in the 20`s. And for just how long it`ll stick around, well the WRF shows it sticking around through at least Tue of next week but air mass will probably be pretty dry due to northerly flow. Of course I could a bit warm on highs/lows and them actually end up colder than what I mentioned, but we`ll see.
Andy. I went to the UW atmospheric site but I couldn't find a link to the snow maps past 72 hours. Could you please show me where I could find these? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteJust scroll a little over half way down the page to where you see 3hour snow fall and 24hour snow fall, which both go out to 180hrs when fully updated. Then just loop them.. :o)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2009030312/extendedgfsinit.html