Models say snow.......

Good evening and welcome again to winter. Oh no, wait, it`s spring and yet models say snow.

Here`s what they show.

Looking at both the UW 12zNAM/ 12zWRF-GFS it appears by looking at the 925mb level, that Sat morning could be the best time for snow if it`s going to fall as they both show 925mb of 0 to -1c with 850mb temps of -2 to -4c with S-SWLY flow just above the surface. However, NAM does`nt show any snow but dose show wide spread precip tomorrow with 1000ft temps in the mid-upper 30`s which would be to warm for snow. But if looking at the 12z WRF-GFS(5pm-24hr), it shows at least an inch or two of snow over the central sound region with maybe three inches or so over Hood Canal area. But again, this will be marginal threat as 1000ft temps are 33/34 degrees(see 1000ft temps chart for 11am). So folks with any fair amount of elevation of say 200+ft, could see some flakes flying by tomorrow morning as temps just above the surface appear to stay in that marginal cataigory through late morning and maybe early afternoon.


Also to note is that both UW NAM/GFS models bring the area of low pressure just a tad south of the central sound region. And a quick look at the afternoon operational 18z/00z(NAM/GFS) shows the weak low coming in just a little south of the central sound as well. Also appears on these models that it could become a bit breezy around mid-late afternoon as winds switch around to NWLY flow. So a breezy to some what windy day could be on tap.

So as I mentioned this morning about accumulations, I would say perhaps an inch or less in general, but from what is shown, it`s possible that some folks with higher elevation and away from major lakes(couple miles or more) could maybe pick up a couple inches. So will see what happens.

If you would like to look at the WRF models for your enjoyment, then here`s the site to get models. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/