Quick thoughts about tomorrows snow.....

It appears that from what is showing on the NAM/WRF models, that conditions will not be good for snow fall as surface winds are light but southerly with SWLY winds at 850mb. 1000ft temps are right on that rain/snow line with temp of 34 degrees with 850mb temps of roughly -4, 5c for early tomorrow.

Attached is the 00zNAM for tonight that shows wind spread snow for 11am Wed. Also to note is that tonights NAM has much more coverage than the morning 12z/ evening 00z.

925mb temps not all that cold and only show about -2c. So if it does snow, would say better chance of that would be hills 700ft and above. So Mt.Si, Tiger Mountain, Possibly Issaquah High-lands, and Cougar mountain just to name some places....would be the more likelier ones to see snow falling would be my best prediction. Again, that if ANY SNOW falls at all. Will it stick? I would say no since airmass is not even COLD enough for it to be of any accumulation for places away from large bodies of water. So the way things look, I`m not really expecting any.

Side note: Already have one comment in my previous entry, so would love to hear other comments about todays CZ.

Todays PSCZ.....some comments would be good

So early this morning we had a band of moderate rain blow through the central sound a little after 930am, in which conditions turned quite breezy for a short time this afternoon with cool and interesting cirrus clouds through the early afternoon. And it appeared winds at 30,000ft+FT were blowing from NW to SE. However, it appears a CZ of sorts took place over the south sound and then moved northward
to it`s usual spot over the central sound. Comments on this folks?

It seems odd that a fast moving CZ this morning that blows through my area, would back track it`s self and move back into the central sound. I`m thinking this was probably to southerly winds aloft that pushed it north. And right now at 8pm, I see it covers most of King county and extends out to the central Cascades. So bit of an interesting CZ today along with the breezy winds I mentioned about. Would be good to hear your comments on this. :o)

Note: The attached pics you see were taken by me while at work today.

Work week ahead: Some what unsettled.....then ridging?

From what is seen in the this afternoons 12z/18zGFS models is that we will remain in cool NWLY flow with thicknesses in the 530`s/540`s with showers at times with highs in the mid-upper 40`s to around 50. However, looks like a couple weak systems slide through here for the work week and the first one appears to come through for Tue with rain and showers likely. Wed probably a day with some showers here/there and maybe a sun break or two. Then for Thurs, looks like yet another system comes through for the increased risk of rain during the day Thurs with shower following behind that system. And for Fri into the weekend, a weak ridge of around 1020mb builds toward our region and then slides through Western Wa on Sat along with rising 500mb heights into the mid-upper 550`s. Though thicknesses only appear to be in the lower 540`s, but 850mb temps do rise a bit and up to about +3c or so. However at surface for Sat, there looks to be SELY flow with 10m temps near 10c. So for right now and given what is shown, think low-mid 50`s seem okay. Increasing clouds and showers look to be back with us for Sun/Mon following week as a weakening, yet elongated trough moves over the PNW.

Checking Tonights 00zGFS, it`s still shows a ridge moving in for later Fri into Sat with upper level heights in the upper 550`s, though thicknesses stay in the lower 540`s. 850mb temp do still look to rise a bit though and show around +3c with SW-SSW flow just above the surface. Also to note is that is that MRF-MOS seems to be in line with my thoughts tonight of highs being in the mid 50`s. Should also note that 12z/18zensemble charts along with 12zEURO also showing a ridge for the weekend as well.

Cool and some what unsettled conditions for the work week

Good afternoon to all.

No snow here in my area this morning, but I was`nt really expecting anything either as the airmass just wasn`t cool enough to support snow in the lowlands, however Tiger Mountain did appear to get a dusting or so of snow per the WSDOT early this morning. In other news though, it`s a cool and rainy day across the Puget sound region with steady light rain with temps currently in the upper 30`s to very low 40`s. Tomorrow should be bit of a dryier day, though few shower may still be possible but more likely to been over the mountains.

As for the work week ahead, looks like cool and some what unsettled conditions continue through about Thur/Fri as it looks like we`ll be under NW-WNW flow aloft. This will keep at least the threat of scatterd showers going at anytime with snow showers in the Cascades/Olympics. So with this cool flow aloft, we`ll probably see highs in the mid-upper 40`s with lows in the mid-upper 30`s I would think. And for the upcing weekend, it appears it could possibly turn out to be pretty nice, mild, and sunny.

Models say snow.......

Good evening and welcome again to winter. Oh no, wait, it`s spring and yet models say snow.

Here`s what they show.

Looking at both the UW 12zNAM/ 12zWRF-GFS it appears by looking at the 925mb level, that Sat morning could be the best time for snow if it`s going to fall as they both show 925mb of 0 to -1c with 850mb temps of -2 to -4c with S-SWLY flow just above the surface. However, NAM does`nt show any snow but dose show wide spread precip tomorrow with 1000ft temps in the mid-upper 30`s which would be to warm for snow. But if looking at the 12z WRF-GFS(5pm-24hr), it shows at least an inch or two of snow over the central sound region with maybe three inches or so over Hood Canal area. But again, this will be marginal threat as 1000ft temps are 33/34 degrees(see 1000ft temps chart for 11am). So folks with any fair amount of elevation of say 200+ft, could see some flakes flying by tomorrow morning as temps just above the surface appear to stay in that marginal cataigory through late morning and maybe early afternoon.


Also to note is that both UW NAM/GFS models bring the area of low pressure just a tad south of the central sound region. And a quick look at the afternoon operational 18z/00z(NAM/GFS) shows the weak low coming in just a little south of the central sound as well. Also appears on these models that it could become a bit breezy around mid-late afternoon as winds switch around to NWLY flow. So a breezy to some what windy day could be on tap.

So as I mentioned this morning about accumulations, I would say perhaps an inch or less in general, but from what is shown, it`s possible that some folks with higher elevation and away from major lakes(couple miles or more) could maybe pick up a couple inches. So will see what happens.

If you would like to look at the WRF models for your enjoyment, then here`s the site to get models. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/

Lowland snow for tomorrow morning?

Good morning to all.

It appears once again, that winter may come to visit us for tomorrow morning as there is the possibility of a little snow(attached images 11am-30hr and 5pm-36hr).

So here`s what the UW models show. Last nights 00zNAM had an area of weak low pressure swinging just north of the central sound which would mean no chance of snow except for maybe the North interior. However, the 00zWRF swung the low across the central sound with marginal cool temps for a little snow. But they were JUST MARGINAL with 1000ft temps reading 33/34 degrees with 850mb temps also being just cool enough for maybe a rain/snow mix.

But on this mornings models, the 12zNAM is still a tad a warm, but also brings the weak low through the central sound for early
tomorrow, while the 12zWRF has the low just slightly south of the of the central sound and still brings the possibility of a little snow, with again, temps just above the surface(1000ft) being in the 33/34 degree range. Now as far as the operational NCEP 06z/12zNAM and 6z/12zGFS models, they are more inline with bringing the even weaker low just south of us. So will some of us see a little snow? It`s possible, but I would`nt get your hopes up as this looks to be VERY MARGINAL at best with maybe a dusting to an inch on the higher hills across the lowlands. So we`ll see what happens.

CPC says below normal temps through June

Am just throwing this out here to spark up some talk regarding long range weather and what it might hold in store for us.

Anyway, was over at the CPC site
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1 and it appears that there forecasting WA state to be in the below normal category for the months April - June. Well guess no supprize there as we normally stay kinda cool with conditions warming as we get near the month of July with monthly avg precip going on the down hill side with July and August being the driest....for me anyway.

On the other end of the spectrum, there also forecasting the PNW to have slightly below normal precip along with parts of the inner mountain west I.E... Montana/Wyoming/Utah/Coloradao also being forecasted to have below normal precip. Now of course, this might be tied into the weakening La-Nina as CPC says this weakening La-Nina could possibly go on through month of May in which then we go into a netural stage. So since La-Nina conditions usually means cool/cold and wet for the Western US and PNW, this could be why there going with that idea.

So any thoughts on this and what might be instore for us?

Clearing skies

Hello and good afternoon.

As you can see by visible satellite, clouds are decreasing over the North sound and also some clearing taking place on the B-Ham weathercam currently. Also, the CZ zone showers are starting to wind down this afternoon and moving southward. So with clear skies, and drier NWLY winds taking hold, those showers should continue to decrease as well. So the trend for the day should be for clearing skies and showers ending except for maybe few left over showers over the Cascades, but those should fade out as well. So with 925mb temps at about +4c with 850mb temps of -1 or -2c, highs should be a bit warmer for tomorrow with highs near 50 to perhaps a few lower 50`s under partly to mostly sunny skies.

Short term weather...(tonight - tomorrow)

Good evening
to all. As you can see by the latest rardar imagery, that a PSCZ is currently ongoing and is over the South Snohomish/ North King county line and stretching into the central Cascades. This CZ looks to last into the evening hours as the 12zWRF shows 850mb Westerly flow continuing through the night. But at the same time, showers look to become wide spread into later on this evening into early morning hours as frontal system/ trough nears the CA/WA border and then slides through Western WA.

As seen by the current inferred satellite image, the frontal system is clearly seen with back egde of the front currently over southern BC. This is the system that slide in here during the day tomorrow with precip looking to end from North to south(3hr precip charts 27hr & 33hr). So as mentioned this morning, should see gradual improving weather through the day with perhaps some evening clearing. And lastly, 12zWRF still showing Thursday to be a dry day.

Impoving weather next few days

Good morning to all.

With the flow aloft tomorrow switching to more of NWLY direction due to a trough clipping us by, we should see improving conditions during the afternoon hours as a frontal system swings through our region with precip ending from North to south. And if you look at the 700/850mb chart for tomorrow evening along with the 500mb chart for tomorrow afternoon, you can the low-mid level airmass starts to dry out during this time frame. So for tomorrow, would say some showers here/ there with clearing skies by late afternoon into evening hours, or at the very least, precip coming to an end. With this NWLY dry flow aloft, would think that we should see mostly sunny skies for Thurs, though still a bit cool with highs in the upper 40`s to around 50 as per the MRF-MOS(Medium Range Forecast - Model Output Statistics)

And from what is seen on the GFS/ GEM/ MRF, it appears that Friday could also be a dry day.....again....highs around 50 to lower 50`s with perhaps partly to mostly sunny skies. However, may see increasing clouds Fri as the next system, a trough, appears to come through for the weekend with showers at times and snow in the Cascades.

Showers for Mon and Tues. Drying out Wed.

Good late evening
to all.

As you can see by the current inferred satellite imagery, a frontal system is not to far off shore and the thinner clouds ahead of this system should be reaching the coast over the next few hours. This is the system that will be moving through during the day tomorrow(see attached 3hr precip chart for 11am) giving us rain and then showers at times once this system passes by tomorrow evening as a cold front. So expect another day with highs in the 40`s to around 50. Though as mentioned, rain will be added to the mix, so it will feel a bit cool.

Once this cold front slides on by tomorrow evening, this will usher in a brief but also a cooler/colder airmass into our region as a trough clips our region. And with flow aloft switching to the NW-NNW, could see a bit of the white stuff flying around the lowlands early Tue morning as both 850 and 925mb temps dip several degrees below freezing. But other wise, Tue should be a cool and showery day, but with possible sun breaks with unstable airmass in place Then for Wed, conditions look to dry out and flow becomes more NNWLY and showers appearing to decrease Wed morning from North to south. So Wed is looking to be a day of improving weather with what looks to be a dry day on Thurs under NNWLY flow along with weak surface and upper level ridging.

Trough for Sunday | Any comments for frist half the week?

Good afternoon to all.

From what the latest models show, it appears a coolish trough(seen currently on inferred satellite) will be coming through tomorrow afternoon as shown by the 500mb chart for 2pm Sun. So some showers will be likely through the day, however the low level cool air at 925/ 850mb level comes into our region for the evening hours with 925mb temps falling to about -2c and 850mb temps falling to about -6 or -7c late tomorrow night into early hours of Monday morning. So might could see a little mixed precip on the higher hills during this time as any left over showers fade away tomorrow night as most shower activity looks to be during the mid afternoon hours of when the front comes through(see 3hr precip chart for 2pm Sun).

Now as far as snow goes, it does look like the possibility is there as another system invades our region for during the day Monday on cool NW-WNW flow aloft, however it looks to be marginal at best and very spotty. So if any snow does fall, it`ll be during the early morning hours.

The Mon-Wed period looks to be a bit showery and unsettled as remain in cool NW-NNWLY flow with thicknesses in the mid 520 to 530`s, however we might start to dry out by around late week as GFS/GEM/MRF/Canadian/ EURO models show a weak ridge of sorts over our region for a day or so. But we`ll see how the models play the possible ridging.

In the satellite pic, I should mention that those two weak lows with in the trough look to fade into one weak low and head into Oregon or California. If you play the loop, you can see the first low looks to be weakening. Hope this entry was`nt to long for you all. :o)

On a side note..... any comments/thoughts about the first half of the week and the snow possibilty in the lowlands?

Dry and cool for Saturday

Good evening to all.

With the weak/moderate cold front out of western Wa this evening, as evident by the clearing skies on last images of visible satellite this evening, tomorrow should be a mostly dry and mostly sunny day though a tad a cool with the cooler air mass now in place. Though could be some clouds around from time to time, but should be nice over all.

However, and as seen on visible/ inferred and water vapor imagery, the next system which is a cold front with deep trough, will be sliding through here during the day Sunday with main part of the troughs energy sliding down to our south. So should start to see increasing clouds by later tomorrow evening. Though from the looks of the WRF/GFS/NAM, this is a pretty thin frontal system that moves through so does`nt look to be a whole lot shower activity, but some showers will be around. So a some what showery day seems reasonable. Yet another coolish trough looks slide in here around Tue/Wed with MAYBE(taken for what it`s worth) for some wintery precip over parts of the lowlands.

So as far as wintery precip chance for next week that I have been asked about, right now it looks like Wed could be the better day for some wintery rain/snow or palin snow. But this is still a good few days away and would be wise to keep checking the models but also taking them with a grain of salt as they will likely change from day to day basis. So that`s my thought anyway! Have a good weekend you all. :o)

Here`s a short vid I took this afternoon of the rain squall that came through Woodinville while at work today.

Showers for the weekend

Good afternoon to all.

Seeing the latest models here, it still appears a cold front will slide through here during the morning hours of tomorrow with scattered showers and a cooler air mass following behind it for the upcoming weekend. And as you can see, the cold front with associated area of low pressure is still aways off shore. That area of low pressure per the OPC(Oceanic Prediction center) shows the low to eventually weaken over next several days near the GOA while our cold front continues to swing through our region.

This cool showery air mass should also bring snow levels back down with more snow in the mountains as this trough looks to be over us for later part of the weekend. I wont say much, but WRF12z is showing a LITTLE spotty lowland snow for early hours of Monday morning. This also looks to be when another possible trough brushes us for the Mon/Tue period with continued cool conditions. In the slightly longer range, it appears the MRF/EURO/GEM model shows us briefly getting into light zonal flow with main zonal energy being just to our north. So rain and showers will continue to be in our forecast for at least first half of next week if not longer.

Warm front, cold front, cool trough

Good evening to all. Per the latest GFS models, an incoming warm front will be brushing us during the day tomorrow into early part of Thurs. So from what is shown it looks like the lowlands should remain dry for the most part, but could see some sprinkles, but the better chance of warm frontal drizzle looks to be along the coast and Cascades/Olympics. Temps may also be relatively mild as there will be light S-SWLY flow of 20kts or less at 850mb(see 850mb chart) with temps at 0c to maybe +1c while 925mb(see 925mb chart) temps look to be between +2 and +4c. So should see highs in the low to perhaps mid 50`s.

After our warm front brushes us by over next couple days, it appears a cold front will be swinging through here
around Sat morning, in which a cool/cold 500mb trough
will be over our region once again and proving a cool showery airmass. The EURO/Canadian model shows this trough for the weekend also. But timing is a little later and in showing trough for late weekend as oppsed to early weekend. Yet another cool trough might and or looks to swing through for early next work week. Unsettled weather marches onward.

Showers at times for Tuesday

Looking at a few models here.... our showery weather will continue into tomorrow, but should be to a lesser extent. Current inferred satellite image still shows plenty of showery cumulus streaming toward us, however showers should be more confined to the Olympics/Cascades with the lowlands seeing more in the way of sun breaks tomorrow. And as mentioned, the showers should be even more scattered as our cool/cold 500mb trough moves out of our region.(see 50mb chart for Tue afternoon) Also should be a bit warmer, perhaps lower 50`s as temps near the surface rise a few degrees above freezing and also rising thicknesses/heights. But could still see few showers during the afternoon due to daytime heating.

Moving onward to mid-week. I have been asked if I see another 'wind storm' for the Wed/Thurs period. Right now the answer is no. However, it does still appear that a strong cold front will be sliding through on near westerly flow aloft for LATE Wed into during the day Thursday and may not move out of Western Wa till about Friday. So on tonights models, surface and 850mb winds seem fairly light.

Alas, it appears the GEM/MRF/EURO/GFS models all show some sort of deep trough coming through for the upcoming weekend for more cool and unsettled conditions.

Showery and cool

Showery and cool conditions. This will be the main theme for the next few days....at for today and into tomorrow as a cool and unstable air mass(our trough) will remain in place during this time. So should see highs in the 40`s with lows in the 30`s.

And with cool/cold 500mb trough in place, there is the possibility that in any of the heavier showers, there could be some ice pellets or maybe even some wet snow flakes mixed in with the showers that pop up during the afternoon/evening hours due to daytime heating. Would also think there should be some sun breaks sometime this afternoon as is typical with these showery air masses. So as mentioned, scattered showers continue into tomorrow with what looks to be a cold front sliding through for the Wed/Thurs period with possibly another system sliding up on SW flow aloft for the upcoming weekend.

Breezy & showery rest of the afternoon

A very breezy and showery day out there with wind gusts mainly in the upper 20`s and into the 30`s here in the Puget sound, though Everett has recently came in with a gust to 43mph. So guess you call this a 'typical March like day' like you would expect it to be.

Anyway, as you can see by the visible satellite imagery, an area of low pressure in currently on the move toward Vancouver Island with showers rotating around it. So until this low passes through our region witch should be late tonight per recent models, conditions should remain breezy to windy at times along with showers and sun breaks. Temps will also remain cool and be in the low-mid 40`s. And with this cool and slightly unstable air mass, a few of the heavier showers could contain small hail, but other wise, just a cool and unsettled day across Western Wa.

Morning snow

Good morning to all

Checking the latest weather obs around the sound, it looks like most areas here at about 9am are in the low to mid 30`s with a good coverage of precip falling over a wide swath of the Puget sound and Kitsap area. So some of you folks may be waking up to snow or a rain/snow mix depending on your temp and locale.

As far as today goes, should still become breezy to windy later on this afternoon as an area of low pressure(now seen developing several hundred miles of Vancouver Island with a weak hook at edge of the cloud band). Between the WRF/NAM 12z, this low looks to range anywhere between 979 to 982mb as it appears to cross Central or North-Central Vancouver Island late this afternoon. But the stronger winds should be out along the coast as shown by the models.

After this low and frontal system passes us by, a cool and showery air mass will be over our region by late tonight and we will be a cool and showery air mass through at least mid week. However by mid week though and from last nights models, a cold front still appears to slide through here for Wed morning with shower following behind it.

On/ off showers for rest of the afternoon | Breezy Sunday

Going off the latest GFS/NAM models
today, the rest afternoon will feature showers at times with highs only being in the low-mid 40`s. A few peaks of filtered sun may also be seen as I have had a few already.

Now as far as tomorrow goes, it appears it`ll be BREEZY to WINDY at times with windy conditions out along the WA coast as a 980-982mb low brings strong SWLY surface winds to the WA coast at the surface and at 850mb.(see surface map and 850mb chart for 2pm Sun.)

As you can see by both charts, it should be a blustery day as the approaching low passes through Western WA. And right now, it appears it`ll track across the NW WA coast and then over Southern Vancouver Island during the morning hours. Not only will there be wind/rain, but the possibility of a little lowland snow after passage of the low as there will be cooler air coming in behind it. Who will and wont see snow? Tough to say. This will be VERY marginal, and thus it`ll be short lived. So case in point, some folks might see a quick inch or two before it all melts away and warms back up. So right now, just cool and unsettled conditions with breezy winds tomorrow and continued unsettled through most of the upcoming work week.

Cool and unsettled weekend

Good evening folks. The weekend is here and it wont be a nice one. Though if your a skier, the added snow will be a bonus for ya.

So lets get on with a bit of model details.

The latest models today/ this evening show a cool and unsettled
weekend with a weak cold front coming through here tomorrow
morning with showers and mountain snow showers following behind it. Might see a few sun breaks behind this first system since it`ll be a weak one. But the short break wont last long.

However, come late Sat into Sunday, a much stronger cold front arrives and with bit of an added punch if you will(see 925mb chart for 2pm this Sunday and 00zGFS surface chart for Sun morning). And from what GFS/NAM/WRF models show, this area of low pressure looks to be in the 982-986mb range and comes up on SW flow aloft somewhere over the Northern WA coast with 40+kt W-SW surface winds for the area mentioned while it looks like the interior Puget sound could see 20kt(30mph) S-SWLY surface winds during the afternoon hours as this low appears to track across southern
Vancouver Island.

Now for those of who read Cliffs blog(me includded) he has mentioned snow on there this morning and I saw this on the WRF models yesterday. And looks like WRF/NAM on the UW site show some lowland areas getting a little snow on Sun on the back side of the low as it brings colder air in aloft. But my thinking is that maybe an inch or two at best. And this is cause the air mass just dose`nt look all that cold as 850mb temps lower to about -7c with 925mb temps getting to about -2c. Now the air mass at 500mb will be pretty chilly for later Sat into Sunday, but NO WHERE near what we has when the modified arctice was in place.

So over all and as the title says, it`ll be a cool and unsettled weekend. Our unsettled weather looks to continue right into middle of the work week with showers at times with cold front still the forecast models for around Wed time frame.

Increasing clouds today

Today will be one last mostly sunny day for the interior with highs in the mid 50`s to maybe upper 50`s. However and as seen by the 915am inferred satellite imagery, our frontal system is already approaching the WA coast. In fact, visible satellite shows high cirrus clouds starting to increase over the NW WA coast this morning.

This frontal system is our cold front. And this front looks to pass through by early tomorrow morning with showers and mountain snow showers following behind it. So a cool and showery day is on tap as a -35c 500mb trough brushes our area. And with this trough comes what looks to be a slightly unstable air mass so could see the isolated thunder shower. Otherwise, just showers with possible sun breaks behind the cold front. Yet another frontal system comes in sometime Sunday with showers following behind that system. So the Olympics/Cascades should pick up some snow for both days.

The Mon-Wed looks to be continued cool and showery at times with highs near 50 to maybe lower 50`s. Yet another cold front looks to arrive by middle of the week for another round of rain and showers and keeping us on track with coolish conditions.

One last sunny, nice day. Showers for the weekend.

Good evening to all.

A quick look at a few models this evening shows that tomorrow we`ll have one last sunny, nice, and mild day with highs a bit warmer than todays. Should see highs in the mid 50`s to maybe even upper 50`s. However, showers are featured for the weekend as a cold front come through on Sat with another frontal system on Sunday with showers following behind it for late Sun into beginning of the work week. And in better news, the 18z/00zGFS isn`t so overly wet with possible flooding as was shown in earlier models. But this weekend into early next week should be coolish with showers at times and highs in upper 40`s to near 50`s with a bit of snow in the mountains.

Sunny day at Tiger Mountain

Good evening to all.

Today was one of those days that was a really nice day for hiking(winter hiking that is) up at Tiger Mountain in Issaquah. And with the recent snow we had this past weekend, there was still plenty of snow up on the moutain. In fact, there was snow down at the base of the trails as well. The trails were pretty snow covered(more so) as you got about half way up, but was compact snow/ice from the daytime melting. So was able to use my YakTracks, which are basically kinda like snow shoes that fit under your boots so as to have better traction.

As for hiking time on the trail which I think is about 4 miles up the TMT(Tiger Mountain Trail) which is steep and or has more of an incline in some places along the way, it took me about 1hr 25min going up and about 45min going back down. So over all and as you can see from the pics I took, it was a pretty clear and sunny day with a snowman to greet the hikers.

Couple more days of ridging(Thurs/Fri)

Good evening folks and welcome to a late evening post!:o)

As you can see by tonights 11pm inferred satellite imagery, our ridge is in place and thus systems are going up and over the ridge and keeping us cold at night with lows in the 20`s, but sunny and cool(though warmer than last couple days) along with sunny skies. However, this looks to change starting Fri afternoon/evening.

As just mentioned, our weather starts to change come Fri afternoon/ evening as a strong cold front approaches our region. So should start seeing increasing clouds through the afternoon hours. This cold front look to pass over the Puget sound area around Sat morning or afternoon with a cold 500mb -38c trough passing through. And WRF-GFS 00z shows plenty of showers around. Though I`m not seeing any supporting factors as t-storm showers go, there could be that isolated chance as the air mass along will a bit unstable and perhaps cold enough to produce a few ice pellet showers in any of the heavier precip that falls.

Could see a small break in the showers come later Sat, but it looks to be short as yet another frontal system looks to be in here for Sun. And as shown over the past week or so, it still appears that frontal system(a warm front perhaps) stalls right over the PNW for Sun/Mon and what looks to be Tue and maybe even Wed. And this is what looks to be one of those system that has a pine apple express appearence to it taps into sub tropical air. Models of course this far out are still up in the air, but for right now, it appears that SW WA and NW Oregon could see the HEAVIEST RAIN FALL totals due to strong SWLY winds at the 850/500mb level with much lighter SWLY winds at the surface. I wont say how much rain GFS models are showing for next week, but it looks to be enough to there the thought of flooding pops up in your mind.

So there you have the lastet installment of Andy`s(me) weather blog.:o) Have a great Thurs/Fri everyone!

Ridging through Friday, then coolish with showers

Good afternoon to all.

Today will be day of clearing from North to south as you can see by the 1230pm visible satellite imagery. Mostly clear North and central sound with clouds at the coast and still mostly cloudy in the south sound. So with clear skies tonight, should be another cold night with lows in the teens and 20`s. Any melting today will re-freeze over night.

On to some ridging.

After some ridging for this week that looks to last through about Fri and highs getting back to the upper 40`s to perhaps lower 50`s, it appears that a strong cold front will slide through here for LATE Fri night or Sat morning in which then a coolish trough will follow behind it with some showers at times with snow in the mountains. May see bit of a break on Sun with less in the way of showers, but still at least a few spotty showers around. Come Monday though, it appears a cold front may stall over us for the Mon through Tue and maybe even Wed period before it finally moves out of our region. Could be mild though as strong SWLY winds show up at the 850mb level. So perhaps we may see highs in the 50`s again.

Ridging this week. Then more snow for the weekend?

Hello folks.

Now that the snow and arctic frontal system has passed through, we are left in a very cold air mass. This means that temps will be pretty chilly during the day with highs in the mid 30`s to right around 40`s and lows in the upper teens to low-mid 20`s for tomorrow morning and Wed morning. So there is certainly going to be icy areas with any wet pavement around that didn`t dry off. So be careful out there!

On to ridging. Models are in agreement about ridging taking place for tomorrow/Wed and lasting through Fri with partly to mostly sunny skies with temps slowly warming into the upper 40`s to maybe lower 50`s by Fri. But our ridge weakens and moves east by the weekend as a cold front & trough swings through here.

More lowland snow for the upcoming weekend? Well, according to the Seattle NWS tonight in there AFD, they mention of it being possible after the passage of cold front Sat morning with the mention of a PSCZ maybe taking place. This is the frist I`m hearing about it, so will see what models say over next several days.