Saturday, July 11, 2009

Upper level low for Sun/Mon... then warming back up

An upper level low will move inland over Oregon tomorrow with shower chances and maybe some elevated convection as flow aloft will still be southerly. And 12z run off the WRF does show precip taking shape over the Cascades tomorrow afternoon along with possible showers over the lowlands. Highs off the 12zWRF for tomorrow show temps near 80, but given that it`ll likely be cloudy with at least some mid-high level clouds showing up with low clouds at the coast, I think what is shown on the 12z MRF-MOS of highs in the upper 60`s to maybe 70 seems more reasonable. Monday may even be more cloudier as the upper level low looks to be right over us and a much better shot at showers and also a tad cooler with highs in the mid 60`s. But for Tue-Fri period, both GEM/MRF and 12z Canadian/EURO models show a moderate ridge of sorts building toward and over our region during this period. So we should return to more sunnier weather during this time, but with SWLY flow aloft, there may be some morning low clouds in spots but should still warm up nicely as low level thicknesses look to be in the low 570`s with 500mb heights in the lower 580`s. Also, WRF shows highs in the upper 70`s to low 80`s for the Wed/Thurs period with highs slightly cooler on Fri with highs near 80 and then back to around the mid 70`s on Sat as the ridge breaks down and or slides eastward to make way for another possible trough and chance of showers.

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