WARMING UP for late week!

Ok folks, not really to much change from earlier GFS models runs though only minor thing is that the GFS has been playing around on/off with the idea of a thermal low off the WA coast for late week and also providing maybe a chance of convection somewhere over the WA coast. But other than that, it appears that a VERY WARM ridge looks to be with us for later this week into possibly the July 4th holiday. So for what the models are worth, should see a gradual warming trend through Wed with highs in the low-mid 70`s under mostly sunny skies with maybe some minor low clouds at the WA coast as flow aloft will still be and is shown to generally be near westerly flow. Ah, but then comes Thurs/Fri(see 12zWRF 5pm Thurs image). This is when thicknesses/upper level heights really rise up with thicknesses near or at 570meters and 500mb heights in the lower 580`sdm with light southerly surface flow. And for what the WRF model has been showing, looks like the 'heat' is on with highs in the mid-upper 80`s Thurs and upper 80`s to perhaps lower 90`s Friday. However and while 12MRF-MOS is warm, it shows mid 80`s for both days just mentioned. Could be just as WARM for Sat as well, with highs in the upper 80`s to maybe right at 90. Looks like we cool temperatures down for Sunday into Monday with highs back near and or low 70`s with chance of showers as large trough looks to dip down over the PNW.

12zGEM/ 12zEURO also show ridging for later in the week, but juts like the GFS, it appears it`s more of a surface ridge as isobars are not all that amplified aloft and actually kind of flat so to speak, but we do still appear to maintain warm ridge with high
thicknesses and upper level heights. So for it`s worth, it looks like it could be a nice night to see the fireworks Sat night. You all will have to see as I will be in Ohio later this week through early next week.

Chance of showers Thursday, then ridging...

Looking at both the 12z/ 18zGFS, and per the 00zMM5-NAM, it looks like a chance of
showers will be with us tomorrow with highs in the mid-upper 60`s. Maybe even a CZ as to what this mornings NAM showed. So we`ll see. But after tomorrow, ridge of high pressure builds into our region for Fri into Sat with 850mb temps near +10c with 500mb heights in the lower 580`s. So should see highs in the mid 70`s and MRF-MOS 12z seems to be right along with this mornings WRF-GFS. In fact it shows a high of 75 for both Sat and Sun. Though a surface/ upper level trough looks to move in here for Sun into Mon with just a small chance of a shower as the trough looks mainly dry, though the flow does turn more of a WSWLY direction during this time. So maybe some mostly cloudy skies, so would say temps in the low-mid 70`s as thicknesses drop to lower 550`s with 500mb heights dropping back to the low 570`s. Looks like our trough continues to drop into our region for Mon into Tue with the small threat of the possibility of maybe a shower here or there being in place. So over all, not to bad for rest of the work week with highs being just a bit above normal for later this week and into early part of the weekend as the a for mentioned ridge looks to give some nice weather. So that is what it looks like for now.

A little rain and some sunshine for the weekend/ early work week

A look at the 12z/18z shows a chance and perhaps some showers for during the day tomorrow as a weakening frontal system slides through. Might not see much out of it, but could pick up some light amounts when and where showers do fall. Highs off the WRF show around 70 so should a bit cooler than todays low-mid 70`s. Sat should be dry with low end chance of showers but will probably just see some clouds and sun at times. For Sun/Mon period, it still looks like a trough will slide through our area with scattered showers and also the possibility of a CZ behind the trough. Tue-Thurs could possibly be dry as weak high pressure at the surface looks to be over our area, though by late week, it looks like large/ deep and showery trough might be with us. So that means that our current and record dry spell could come to an end between tomorrow and next weekend, but we`ll see what happens. Highs for the weekend through next Thurs off the WRF range between mid 60`s to low 70`s. So it`s possible we could end up seeing some slightly below normal days here, but will still be mild none the less. So over all, looks like we`ll a little rain and Sun for tomorrow and the upcoming weekend and beginning of the work week.

Clouds, Sun, chance of showers.....

This morning 06zGFS still going with at least a chance of showers for around Wed time frame, but with the front pretty much fizzling out when it gets here, we may just end up with only a few sprinkles here and there. Other than that, tomorrow looks like another dry day with some degree of clouds and maybe some sun in the afternoon with highs near 70. And going off the MRF-MOS, highs on Wed look to be in the mid-upper 60`s. Thurs-Sat also looks and or should be mainly dry, and again, having some degree of clouds and sun as well have W-WNWLY flow aloft through the weekend with highs near 70 or maybe lower 70`s. A frontal system with perhaps a trough could possibly slide through here for late weekend into beginning of next work week.

MRF and GEM model also shows a chance of showers around mid week, but like the GFS, anything that falls should be pretty light.

Mainly dry with chance of showers for the weeekend...

Checking out the 6z/12zGFS this morning, our dry weather looks to continue through at least early next week, however the exception is a chance of showers and or maybe a few t-storms for Sat as a small trough/ small upper level low will be with us but also just a little south of us to keep our SE-ESELY flow over our region. This means that not only will the chance of convection exist over the Cascades through Fri into the weekend, but also looks to exist for the lowlands for the weekend. As mentioned though, we stay mainly dry. Highs off the 12zWRF and 12zMRF-MOS show low 70`s through Fri with highs in the upper 60`s to near 70 over the weekend then back to low 70`s for early next week, but think MOS is being a tad cool through Fri and we`ll probably see more like mid 70`s.

Comfortable weekend and week ahead....

Looking at the latest GFS models here, we know it`ll be cooler and much more comfortable over the weekend with highs in the 60`s/ 70`s with morning clouds and afternoon sun. But for the week ahead, we`ll, looks like we stay pretty much on the continued dry side of things with thicknesses around the mid 550`s and heights in the mid 560`s to near 570dm with highs again being mid-upper 60`s to low 70`s. Though around mid week there could be a chance of showers as a small trough drops over our region, but look to be mainly a few mountain showers as the flow aloft appears to go from N-NWLY for beginning of the week, over to more of a NELY wind by late in the week. On the flip side though, both 00zEURO and 12zGEM show some weak ridging of sorts that lasts through about Sat time frame. So the work should see areas of morning/early afternoon clouds with late morning or early-mid afternoon sunshine with daytime highs being a lot more tolerable.

Picture attached shows part of Heather Lake with snow beginning to melt around it.