HOT TEMPERATURES for mid week.....

Per the 12zWRF, looks like Wed/Thurs will be pretty WARM/HOT as by Thus we could see upper 90`s to maybe even, dare I say again, low 100`s. Now this is the first time to show this in this second ''heat wave'' as it has previously shown low-mid 90`s. But after our heat wave, we look to cool back down into the 70`s. And for those two days mentioned, it appears we have southerly flow at 850/500mb, so there may be the chance of storms over the Cascades. And with that moist southerly flow, it may once again feel a bit humid. Also to note is that GFS models are a bit warmer, on the 12z/18z anyway, as they show thicknesses now up to 582 meters and 850mb temps reaching to near +24c depending on what models you choose from. Even the 12zEURO is HOT with heights up to 588dm, so looks like HOT weather will still be in tack for mid-late week. Comments/ questions?

Cooling down some over the weekend..

Looking at some of the models here, it appears that today will be our last REALLY WARM TO HOT day here in the inland Puget sound region as high temp this afternoon once again look to be in the upper 90`s to maybe low 100`s. Tomorrow should be a bit cooler and not so hot with highs off the 12zWRF this morning showing mid-upper 80`s and then about the same for Fri with maybe a few low 90`s in the south sound region. Sun also looks roughly the same with with mid to upper 80`s. So some relief is in site for the weekend, but it`ll be a gradual cool down. Also, our ridge looks to weaken some over the weekend and into next week as an upper level low rides up the west coast coast and eventually being off the OR/WA coast by what looks to be the Wed/Thurs time frame. GFS/Canadian/EURO/GEM model show this upper level low for us as well and also about the same time frame....mid-late week. And if this holds true, then we possibly could have some convective showers over the mountains and maybe the lowlands to as this upper low looks to be having us in SE-ESELY winds aloft. So will have to see how this pans out. Also to note is that 500mb heights are in the 570`s/ 580`s during this time so should be in high 70`s to 80`s, but that is going out on a limb, but dose look to be that way for now.

Have attached a couple photos I took of the cumulonimbus clouds I saw yesterday on my way home that built up over the Cascades during the afternoon hours.

The HEAT BUILDS UP by mid-week

So now regarding the heat and our ridge. Looking through todays 6z through 18zGFS and tonights 0zGFS, they all basically show rather STRONG and amplified ridging that looks to continue through at least Fri/Sat. But the exception to this ridge will be the chance of afternoon/evening storms over the Cascades in which some could drift over the lowlands with few showers, but only briefly(Water vapor image from this evening). But this will do LITTLE in the way to help out with our ever so dry conditions. And adding flue to the fire is our soaring temps each day in which we will be really cooking by mid-late week as highs look to be up in the upper 90`s under mainly sunny skies. But tomorrow may very well perhaps be warmer or just as warm....upper 80`s to maybe 90. Someone on here mentioned about Portland reaching 90 today. But Mon will really be the start of the up hill climb as the HEAT GETS TURNED UP. And 00zWRF for Mon shows upper 80`s to maybe low 90`s with Tue showing low-mid 90`s, Wed-Thurs upper 90`s to maybe A FEW SPOTS seeing lower 100`s and Fri 'cooling' back down a bit with upper 80`s to low 90`s showing up for highs(image shown is for 2pm Wed). So for what the models are worth, it will be pretty darn HOT and pretty SUNNY so you will want to take many breaks and stay WELL HYDRATED as not to over heat.

Things might cool down a bit for the up coming weekend as low level temps and upper level heights lower a bit as models hint at some sort of brief split-flow late in the weekend into early following week. However in regards to the upcoming weekend, it appears there could be a chance of storms over OR/WA as an upper level low swings ashore somewhere to the northern west coast in which this may give us a decent chance as it has in SE-ESELY flow at 500/700mb. But since this out past 5 days, will have to see what models do with this forecasted upper level for the coming weekend ahead.

Chance of convection with WARM WEATHER to come

Still looks like there could possibly be some t-storms over the Cascades and maybe over the lowlands for Sun afternoon as 12zWRF shows CAPE of about 1600-1800j/kg(12z img is for 5pm Sun) with SREF model showing CAPE of around 2500j/kg over Cascades and lowlands. LI`s pretty low across the Western Wa lowlands as they are showing -4, -5c. And SREF model also showing 1000-2000j/kg MLCAPE & MUCAPE as well. Though lapse rates are pretty small and showing about a 3c/km, so not really a good thing to see when wanting t-storms. On the other hand though, both 6z/12GFS models as well as last nights 00zGFS, does still bring a weak vort max through during the day today or into tomorrow, but not really seeing anything come in over the weekend. But any storms that do pop up over the weekend(best chance looks to be Sat, Sun & Mon) think it`ll likely be high based as the airmass at 850/700mb looks moderately moist with 500mb airmass looking some what moist. So main threat from any storms that show up will likely be lightning strikes if any do occur.


As far as our strong ridge goes, looks like it will hold strongly through possibly middle of next week as thicknesses look to be anywhere from the mid 570`s to lower 580`s. And with 850mb temps on the 6z/12zGFS showing +20 to +24c and 500mb heights in the 588 to 594dm range, we should likely be in or around the mid 90`s this weekend into early part of next week. And when looking at the 12z MRF-MOS for Seattle, it shows Mon/Tue being the WARMEST days with high of 88 both days where as the 12zWRF shows roughly about the same with highs in the upper 80`s to low 90`s for Mon/Tue and Wed as well. Now for later in the week, both GFS models show a surface and or upper level thermal low moving somewhere up the off shore waters of the OR/WA coast which looks to give us some SELY winds aloft which could bring us some showers/ convective showers, so will just have to see how this all plays out. So overall, looks like it`s going to be VERY WARM with lots of sunshine. So take it easy over the weekend and stay hydrated as much as you can.

Upper level low for Sun/Mon... then warming back up

An upper level low will move inland over Oregon tomorrow with shower chances and maybe some elevated convection as flow aloft will still be southerly. And 12z run off the WRF does show precip taking shape over the Cascades tomorrow afternoon along with possible showers over the lowlands. Highs off the 12zWRF for tomorrow show temps near 80, but given that it`ll likely be cloudy with at least some mid-high level clouds showing up with low clouds at the coast, I think what is shown on the 12z MRF-MOS of highs in the upper 60`s to maybe 70 seems more reasonable. Monday may even be more cloudier as the upper level low looks to be right over us and a much better shot at showers and also a tad cooler with highs in the mid 60`s. But for Tue-Fri period, both GEM/MRF and 12z Canadian/EURO models show a moderate ridge of sorts building toward and over our region during this period. So we should return to more sunnier weather during this time, but with SWLY flow aloft, there may be some morning low clouds in spots but should still warm up nicely as low level thicknesses look to be in the low 570`s with 500mb heights in the lower 580`s. Also, WRF shows highs in the upper 70`s to low 80`s for the Wed/Thurs period with highs slightly cooler on Fri with highs near 80 and then back to around the mid 70`s on Sat as the ridge breaks down and or slides eastward to make way for another possible trough and chance of showers.

WARMING UP for late week!

Ok folks, not really to much change from earlier GFS models runs though only minor thing is that the GFS has been playing around on/off with the idea of a thermal low off the WA coast for late week and also providing maybe a chance of convection somewhere over the WA coast. But other than that, it appears that a VERY WARM ridge looks to be with us for later this week into possibly the July 4th holiday. So for what the models are worth, should see a gradual warming trend through Wed with highs in the low-mid 70`s under mostly sunny skies with maybe some minor low clouds at the WA coast as flow aloft will still be and is shown to generally be near westerly flow. Ah, but then comes Thurs/Fri(see 12zWRF 5pm Thurs image). This is when thicknesses/upper level heights really rise up with thicknesses near or at 570meters and 500mb heights in the lower 580`sdm with light southerly surface flow. And for what the WRF model has been showing, looks like the 'heat' is on with highs in the mid-upper 80`s Thurs and upper 80`s to perhaps lower 90`s Friday. However and while 12MRF-MOS is warm, it shows mid 80`s for both days just mentioned. Could be just as WARM for Sat as well, with highs in the upper 80`s to maybe right at 90. Looks like we cool temperatures down for Sunday into Monday with highs back near and or low 70`s with chance of showers as large trough looks to dip down over the PNW.

12zGEM/ 12zEURO also show ridging for later in the week, but juts like the GFS, it appears it`s more of a surface ridge as isobars are not all that amplified aloft and actually kind of flat so to speak, but we do still appear to maintain warm ridge with high
thicknesses and upper level heights. So for it`s worth, it looks like it could be a nice night to see the fireworks Sat night. You all will have to see as I will be in Ohio later this week through early next week.

Chance of showers Thursday, then ridging...

Looking at both the 12z/ 18zGFS, and per the 00zMM5-NAM, it looks like a chance of
showers will be with us tomorrow with highs in the mid-upper 60`s. Maybe even a CZ as to what this mornings NAM showed. So we`ll see. But after tomorrow, ridge of high pressure builds into our region for Fri into Sat with 850mb temps near +10c with 500mb heights in the lower 580`s. So should see highs in the mid 70`s and MRF-MOS 12z seems to be right along with this mornings WRF-GFS. In fact it shows a high of 75 for both Sat and Sun. Though a surface/ upper level trough looks to move in here for Sun into Mon with just a small chance of a shower as the trough looks mainly dry, though the flow does turn more of a WSWLY direction during this time. So maybe some mostly cloudy skies, so would say temps in the low-mid 70`s as thicknesses drop to lower 550`s with 500mb heights dropping back to the low 570`s. Looks like our trough continues to drop into our region for Mon into Tue with the small threat of the possibility of maybe a shower here or there being in place. So over all, not to bad for rest of the work week with highs being just a bit above normal for later this week and into early part of the weekend as the a for mentioned ridge looks to give some nice weather. So that is what it looks like for now.

A little rain and some sunshine for the weekend/ early work week

A look at the 12z/18z shows a chance and perhaps some showers for during the day tomorrow as a weakening frontal system slides through. Might not see much out of it, but could pick up some light amounts when and where showers do fall. Highs off the WRF show around 70 so should a bit cooler than todays low-mid 70`s. Sat should be dry with low end chance of showers but will probably just see some clouds and sun at times. For Sun/Mon period, it still looks like a trough will slide through our area with scattered showers and also the possibility of a CZ behind the trough. Tue-Thurs could possibly be dry as weak high pressure at the surface looks to be over our area, though by late week, it looks like large/ deep and showery trough might be with us. So that means that our current and record dry spell could come to an end between tomorrow and next weekend, but we`ll see what happens. Highs for the weekend through next Thurs off the WRF range between mid 60`s to low 70`s. So it`s possible we could end up seeing some slightly below normal days here, but will still be mild none the less. So over all, looks like we`ll a little rain and Sun for tomorrow and the upcoming weekend and beginning of the work week.

Clouds, Sun, chance of showers.....

This morning 06zGFS still going with at least a chance of showers for around Wed time frame, but with the front pretty much fizzling out when it gets here, we may just end up with only a few sprinkles here and there. Other than that, tomorrow looks like another dry day with some degree of clouds and maybe some sun in the afternoon with highs near 70. And going off the MRF-MOS, highs on Wed look to be in the mid-upper 60`s. Thurs-Sat also looks and or should be mainly dry, and again, having some degree of clouds and sun as well have W-WNWLY flow aloft through the weekend with highs near 70 or maybe lower 70`s. A frontal system with perhaps a trough could possibly slide through here for late weekend into beginning of next work week.

MRF and GEM model also shows a chance of showers around mid week, but like the GFS, anything that falls should be pretty light.

Mainly dry with chance of showers for the weeekend...

Checking out the 6z/12zGFS this morning, our dry weather looks to continue through at least early next week, however the exception is a chance of showers and or maybe a few t-storms for Sat as a small trough/ small upper level low will be with us but also just a little south of us to keep our SE-ESELY flow over our region. This means that not only will the chance of convection exist over the Cascades through Fri into the weekend, but also looks to exist for the lowlands for the weekend. As mentioned though, we stay mainly dry. Highs off the 12zWRF and 12zMRF-MOS show low 70`s through Fri with highs in the upper 60`s to near 70 over the weekend then back to low 70`s for early next week, but think MOS is being a tad cool through Fri and we`ll probably see more like mid 70`s.

Comfortable weekend and week ahead....

Looking at the latest GFS models here, we know it`ll be cooler and much more comfortable over the weekend with highs in the 60`s/ 70`s with morning clouds and afternoon sun. But for the week ahead, we`ll, looks like we stay pretty much on the continued dry side of things with thicknesses around the mid 550`s and heights in the mid 560`s to near 570dm with highs again being mid-upper 60`s to low 70`s. Though around mid week there could be a chance of showers as a small trough drops over our region, but look to be mainly a few mountain showers as the flow aloft appears to go from N-NWLY for beginning of the week, over to more of a NELY wind by late in the week. On the flip side though, both 00zEURO and 12zGEM show some weak ridging of sorts that lasts through about Sat time frame. So the work should see areas of morning/early afternoon clouds with late morning or early-mid afternoon sunshine with daytime highs being a lot more tolerable.

Picture attached shows part of Heather Lake with snow beginning to melt around it.

Continued WARM & Mostly sunny

Good evening to all.

Seeing the latest models and also past couple days, it looks like WARM and mostly sunny weather will continue through the work week with highs each day over interior lowlands looking to be in the low-mid 80`s with some upper 80`s also possible later in the week.

And our dry weather will be due split-flow aloft with high pressure in the GOA and a cut-off low(see satellite images) off the coast of California. Main affect from this low for the work week looks to be to convection over the Cascades of Oregon and perhaps WA as well, but convective parameters the last several days including today continue to favor the OR Cascades where instability will be the most favorable. But it`s also possible some convection could fire over the SW WA Cascades, but that continues to look like a small chance, though debris clouds could certainly drift northward over WA Cascades like they did this evening. Out cut-off low to the south looks to slowly drift southward over the next sever days and eventually weaken further and moving inland over California late in the week to which it then appears to move into the inner mountain west for the weekend with possible convection firing over higher terrain areas.

So over all, and though WARM, it looks like a really nice week ahead. A chance of showers might be back in our forecast for the weekend with highs being a bit cooler, though still mild, but also not as warm as to what we may see through Friday. So enjoy the early summer weather, but also take it easy, take breaks, cool off and put on that sun screen!

Warm day & ''Clear air'' mode + Nice weekend

To start, today was a fabulous day here in the interior and over WA State as well thanks to building high pressure which looks to be with us through the weekend with highs in the mid 70`s and maybe even a few low 80`s under mostly sunny skies. So nice weekend shaping up!

Also to note and for those of you who have looming over the models last couple days, you know that there is the chance at some convective precip over what appears to be the SW WA Cascades and also the Oregon Cascades as CAPE values will be impressively high up around 1400j/kg and Lifted index values pretty low and at around -4, -5c. But moisture looks limited, but some will be present so am thinking high based afternoon t-storms with lightning being main issue. Don`t really expect them to come Westward off the Cascades as greatest instability will be over the higher terrain of the Cascades. But if anything forms, it looks to be scattered. So best chance from what was see this morning and yesterday as well, looks to be tomorrow afternoon and Sat afternoon. The interior lowlands of western WA will see mainly clear skies and mild conditions.

Ok, now to radar(see link and image). It appears the Seattle-WSR may be in ''clear air mode'' as it currently shows a blob of false precip moving up from the SW and heading toward the central sound. This more likely just a bunch of pollen/ dust, ect. OR! Could be a flock of birds flying in our direction from the south sound this evening. I have seen something similar before on a clear day of when it showed flase precip. So can`t always take what you see on radar for granted as it may show something there when in fact it`s not.

Enjoy the weekend you all!
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?atx_n0r+/2h/

More sunny and pleasant days this work week...

Checking out the models this evening, this coming work week.... Mon-Fri still looks to feature mainly sunny, pleasant days and highs in the low-mid 70`s with perhaps mid-upper 70`s to maybe 80 or so on Thursday.

Current surface map(see graphic) shows the dominating high pressure just to our SW that has been in control of our weather since about Friday. It also shows a weakening cold front headed our way as well. Though this cold front.....well cool front....since it will only have has us seeing slightly cooler temps with highs in the mid 60....looks to maybe give some LIGHT precip in the form of some possible sprinkles to the WA coast and perhaps the Cascades, but otherwise, lowland interior areas should remain dry as the weak front moves through here during the day Tues.

And then for the Wed through Fri now, or so it appears, models still show our ridge to amplify some with 500 heights rising into the mid 570`s with thicknesses in the low 560`s. So as mentioned, Thurs possibly looks like our warmest day of the week. For the weekend, our ridge might end up weakening as a trough look to maybe clip our region with highs back in the 60`s. But over all and with exception of Tues front, the week ahead looks pretty nice.

Pleasant weekend coming up.

Looking at the models this evening, not to much has changed as a surface ridge will be us tomorrow through the weekend and slowly building strength at the surface while flow aloft is near zonal and flat. So with rising thicknesses to near the low 550`s or in the 550`s and heights nearing 570dm, we should highs in the mid 60`s tomorrow and Fri with highs perhaps getting into lower 70`s on Sat or Sun as 850mb temps still look to rise to around +10c. Per 12zWRF, looks like we maybe could see some lower 80`s in the interior central sound for Mon afternoon, but that remains to be seen. GEM/EURO still showing ridging as well. So over all, should be a pleasant partly to even mostly sunny and enjoyable weekend. So get out and enjoy the sunshine! :o)

One more nice day, then showers & slightly cooler highs

Latest models from today including the 18zGFS, shows that Monday will offer one more nice day with highs looking to be in 70s in the interior with mostly sunny skies. Though by later Mon afternoon/evening, clouds should be on the increase as a weak system slides into our area for early Tue with coolish, but short-wave trough moving through during the day Tue. So will likely see showers at times with highs in the mid-upper 50`s to near 60 or lower 60`s as thicknesses lower to around 540m and 850mb temps drop to near 0c. Showers look to linger into Wed, but should be spotty as an area of high pressure is shown to build back over us from the West for mid-late week and into the weekend possibly with what looks to be pleasant afternoon highs with at least partly cloudy skies as heights rise back up into the mid 560`sdm and 850mb temps around +5, +6c. Flow aloft at 500mb from about mid-week through the weekend looks nearly zonal. So some mornings may and or might start out mostly cloudy, but should see some sun by afternoon time. So despite the one and only system coming through for the work week, the week it`s looks to be good shape. Should also say that from roughly Wed through Sun, the WRF shows forecasted highs to be in the low-mid 60`s. So as already mentioned, should be pleasant for about the second half of the work week.

High pressure for the weekend and maybe Monday to.

So looking at the GFS models here, a strong ridge of high pressure will be with us and over our region for the weekend and possibly lasting into Monday. Should also see highs in the upper 60`s to low 70`s to maybe a few mid 70`s as 500mb heights look to be in the mid to upper 570`sdm with thicknesses in the mid 560`s. 850mb temps during time not looking any different from previous runs and still show right around +10c. For Monday, it appears the our ridge may strengthen just a bit, but still seeing highs in the 70`s, though it appears there is some westerly flow aloft which will keep us from getting to warm. Our ridge weakens/ moves east for Tuesday as weak trough moves through our region and actually it looks like the main but weak area of low pressure will be just over the WA/ CA border, but still close enough to give us clouds and possibly a few showers.

For the longer term, GFS shows maybe a return of some what strong ridging, but looking more or less flat ridging, however it looks dry and pleasant from about mid week through the weekend possibly as 500mb heights don`t really drop all that much and stay in the 570`s and thicknesses in the 550`s to low 560`s. But if looking at the 00zEURO, it shows generally some what flat ridging through most of the five day work week. On the other hand, GEM and MRF model both show through to still come through around Tue/Wed time frame with some weak ridging after that. So we`ll just have to see how it plays out for next week.

One more weather system this week, then drying/warming

So looking at a few models here, we`ll have rain and showers at time for later tomorrow afternoon evening as a decent frontal system swings through for later Wed into Thurs(see satellite image). So probably see partly cloudy to filtered sunshine as the next system(currently heading toward the WA coast) comes ashore during the day tomorrow. So should be another day of similar high temps in the upper 50`s to 60 or low 60`s.

For Fri though, it still looks like we dry things out and also warming up as thicknesses rise into the upper 550`s with 500mb heights rising into the low-mid 570`s over the weekend. But as the GFS models would have it, they have weakend the ridge just bit to where we may have the possibility of seeing some high clouds at times. But should still remain mostly sunny with highs perhaps in the 70`s to maybe around, and dare I say....80 degrees. But folks, this is all at FACE VALUE, so take it for what it`s worth. Canadian model also shows moderate ridging over the weekend. But if you were to believe the 12zECMWF, it shows an amplified and very warm ridge right over the PNW for next Mon/Tue where as the 12z/18z and just now seeing the incoming 00z, shows a coolish trough dropping over us from the NorthWest with rain/ showers at times. So will continue to see how models do with the upcoming ridge.

Nice this weekend, but changes come later Sunday.

Looking at the latest GFS models....looks like our nice weather will come to end late tomorrow as a weakening cold front slides in here for Mon morning with a cool 528m/ 540dm 500mb trough following behind the front for late Mon evening into early Tue with 850mb temps dropping down to between -3 and -5c. And with this cool trough sliding through and 500mb temps of about -33, -34c....it will certainly make for a coolish couple of days under westerly flow aloft and showers at times. WRF-GFS showing highs only in the mid 50`s for Mon/Tue. Paradise Mt.Rainier will likely pick up a bit more snow with this incoming short wave trough that is shown to slide through our region. Looks like a short break for early Wed as a short wave, but weak high pressure slides through. But alas, should see increasing clouds by mid-late day Wed as a decent cold front is already making it to the WA coast during this time. The cold front slides through for Thursday with rain looking to turn to showers for later Thurs with more showers Fri as a short wave trough/ 500mb vort max is forecasted to slide through on Fri. And for the upcoming weekend, GFS models still on track for Drying/warming starting Sat with ridging becoming more strongly in place over PNW and building in strength for later Sun into Monday/Tue of the following week with mild/warm weather possibly. So we`ll see what happens.

Continued unsettled through this Thursday.....

Good evening to all.

Getting a look at a few models here, our unsettled and some what cool and showery weather will continue through Thursday. Now we currently have a small break this evening and are now in between systems with temporary clearing across parts of Western WA as the remnants of todays frontal systems continues to head away from us.

For tomorrow though, we should see increasing clouds/rain as the next vigorous system(seen circled in red) on inferred satellite, slides across our region and looks to be over us for during the morning/ early afternoon hours, with rain turning to showers by late in day with highs only being in or around the mid 50`s. And behind this incoming upper level piece of energy is a short wave trough with 500mb temps of -30 to -32c and thicknesses of 534meters that slides across our area for during the day Thurs. And like tomorrow, we should see plenty of showers around with high temps being pretty much similar to Wed with highs around or in the mid 50`s. And with a cold, yet small short wave/ vort lobe moving through, there could be that chance of an isolated thunder shower with any sun breaks we get on Thurs, if we do get any at all. But with that cold trough moving in, this means the airmass aloft will and or should be slight unstable. So showers will probably be most numorus when the short wave trough arrives.

Now for the weekend.....well starting Fri, highs look to be a little warmer and in the mid to maybe upper 50`s with improving conditions as a 1032mb ridge of high pressure builds toward our coast. So should see more in the way sun for the later part of Friday. For the weekend, that is looking pretty nice, at least so far in the models, as our ridge looks to be with us for both days with partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the low-mid 60`s both Sat and Sun. So over all, looks like a pretty good weekend in the making!

WINDY system coming ashore..(in May?)

Yep, a winter like system looks to be coming
ashore for tomorrow night into early Tue
with WINDY to blustery conditions across Western WA. This type of system would normally be seen during the winter months, but guess mother nature booked a very late visit to the PNW as this is the month of May! This isn`t Nov/ Dec or Jan mind you! This is spring time!

Anyway....

Looking at various models tonight, a pretty vigorous frontal system will be coming through our region for late tomorrow night with rain and some breezy to blustery conditions into Tue morning as the trailing frontal system slides through here. The WA coast looks like it will feel the main effects of the storm system, and thus having the stronger winds there with possibility of low-end gales off the off-shore waters of the WA coast for during the later afternoon hours as off shore surface winds show 40-45kts from the SE with at least 40-50kts along the WA at 850mb. Though however, it appears that majority of the models keep the strong area of low pressure well north of us and crossing or clipping northern Vancouver Island while 00zNAM-WRF has it crossing over central Vancouver Island. But models seem to think that the low will swing over the northern part of the island, but strength dose vary between the models as they show anywhere between 980 to 989mb. So there are certainly some differences on how strong the storm will be, but think we all will some breezy weather into part of Tue after frontal passage.

Both images shown are for 2am Tue. Feel free to comment. :o)

Nice weather Friday. Turning unsettled for the weekend

Other than just a few highs clouds for early tomorrow morning, it should be a mostly sunny day with high temps just as warm as todays(near 70), if not a little warmer with 00zWRF showing upper 60`s to lower 70`s. Though, looks like we`ll have increasing clouds for late in the day tomorrow as a weak frontal system(seen on inferred satellite imagery tonight) comes ashore during the over night hours and into Sat with rain and showers over the lowlands by early Sat morning. Highs for Sat look to be in the mid 50`s to around 60. So will be just a little cooler with westerly flow taking over our region for the weekend. As mentioned, westerly flow will settle over our region for Sun and through much of next week with what looks to be an unsettled and active weather pattern.

This unsettled weather pattern that will effect our region for next week looks to be due to an area of low pressure that will and or is forecasted spin around over the open NE Pacific for much of the coming work week. This area of low pressure also looks to spin out little, but vigorous frontal systems toward our area that will leave us pretty wet at times. And even a few GFS models from today including tonights 00zGFS/WRF shows a possible breezy/ windy system that might give parts of Western WA some blustery conditions around mid-week. But think it may be something that might need to be watched if models continue to advertise this breezy system for mid-week. But however, the main 110+Kt 300mb jet stream looks be pointed at Oregon and perhaps Northern California through much of next week. So that area of the region looks to have the bulk of the active weather systems energy, though we still have our own unsettled weather with rain and showers at times with cooler conditions for the work week and maybe into the weekend as well. So over all, plan on a wet and cool week ahead.

Possibly nice weather this upcoming weekend

Good evening to all.

After looking at some of the models this evening and from this morning, it appears that the models over past several days look to be in general agreement about some split-flow with narrow ridge aloft and at the surface. Models kinda differ about how this will turn out, but it seems to be that the upper level jet will be aimed at Oregon or California in which we may possibly maintain at least partly cloudy skies for late in the week and into the weekend. On the 18zGFS, you see that the narrow ridge extends all the way up into Canada. The end result will be weakening/ splitting systems as they enter the...oh lets call this the 'high magnitude ridge', with parts of the frontal system heading well south of us. For past couple/few days now, the models have been showing a weak system heading into Oregon or California by Sat or Sunday......hence the split flow. But it looks as if this ridge might last into maybe Sun, though a frontal system looks to be sliding in during this time. So we`ll see. But so far, it does appear that we`ll see milder temps, but still comfortable over the weekend.

Feel free to comment, ect. :o)

The weekend is here....

The weekend is here, and that means what ever plans you have outdoors, you may want to have a rain jacket handy as there will be some showers at times as a weak disturbance drops through here during the day tomorrow producing a few showers and possibly a CZ over the Northern interior. This system dropping through from the north is currently shown on inferred satellite imagery tonight. Should also feel like a coolish day as clouds and showers will be around as the WRF is showing low-mid 50`s for highs. Might see a bit of clearing late in the day, though will still have lots of clouds around.

Sun should be a better day and also drier/ and warmer with highs getting back to upper 50`s to lower 60`s for highs along with partly cloudy skies under N-NWLY flow aloft. However, it appears another weak system(shown on the 500mb chart and light shade of red over Vancouver Island) looks to drop down near us/ on us for a few showers and or chance showers mainly over the Olympics and perhaps the Cascades as well with lowlands seeing dry weather. So Sun is looking like the nicer of the two days for right now and also for what is see.

Dry, seasonable conditions for the weekend

Good evening to all.

After looking at a few models here, it appears that our weekend will for the most part be a partly to mostly sunny one with seasonable highs in the mid 50 to upper 50`s to low 60`s. And our dry weather will be due to strong NWLY flow aloft, turning more Northerly late in the weekend. Though a weak piece of upper level energy may possibly drop down over us early Sat morning for a chance of showers on the back side of an upper level trough that will and or eventually get negatively tilted in our direction for around middle part of next week. And for the WRF12z is worth, it shows a PSCZ for early Sat over the North interior with just a FEW ISOLATED showers eles where. So over all, should be pretty good weekend to be outdoors.

The first two images are for 8am Sat with first image showing the 3hr precip/ CZ and the 500mb chart showing the NWLY flow aloft follow by surface high temps for 5pm Sat.

One more day of 70`s, then cooler(some what)

Looking at the models here this evening, I see that they still show a weak 'cool' front/ dry type trough coming through for the Wed/Thurs period. Though could be a few showers here/ there, but for most part the 12z/18zGFS and 12zGEM/12zCanadian remain dry. After this weak frontal system/ trough comes through, it appears that weak surface ridging will be with us for Fri, but this surface ridge only looks to last a day. Then for the weekend, GFS/WRF show good N-NNWLY flow for some what cooler conditions. But not to cool as the models shows highs in the upper 50`s to low 60`s. And with this cool N-NNWLY flow, over night lows could be kinda cool with lows in the lower 40`s/ upper 30`s as 850mb are in the 0 to -2c for late this week and into the weekend. So will see what models continue to do as last nights models showed a more showery type trough where as todays is more drier. We`ll see what happens.

The first image shows the trough at 500mb coming through for Thurs morning with second image showing surface highs in the 50`s for Thurs afternoon.

Ridging = nice warm weather for the weekend

Hello to all and good morning. :o)

Models are very much in agreement about some ridging over the weekend after today showers with todays highs getting into the 50`s/60`s. Maybe even see some sun breaks by later this evening or if not sunshine, at least some breaks in the cloud cover.

But not to worry, there will certainly be sunny skies for the weekend as moderate ridge of high pressure will be nearly on top of us with 500mb heights getting into the low-mid 570`s with 850mb temps rising up to about +10c by late sun evening. Though aloft, there looks to be SW-WSWLY flow, so this will probably keep surface temps from getting to warm. None the less though, WRF12z for Sat is showing mid-upper 60`s to maybe 70 with Sun showing low-mid 70`s. And depending on what model you choose, it appears that high pressure may last into about Tue or maybe Wed, however it will be weakening by this time as the ridge begins to break down and an area of low pressure or trough drops down over our region from the NorthWest to provide us with cool and showery conditions as low level thicknesses drop back into the low or mid 520`s with 850mb temps between 0 and -4c or so.

With this some what cool trough in place, should see highs back in the 50`s as this trough looks to be with us for next weekend, but if you are to believe the Canadain GEM model, it shows another possible ridge for that weekend. But this is to far to say what will happen, so will keep checking the models to see what they show over the coming days ahead.

Have a good, sunny weekend you all. :o)

Update on the ridging for the weekend

Taking a look at the models here, I see that on the 06zGFS and 00zGEM model from last night that they still want to swing a weakening frontal system through here for LATE tomorrow evening and into wee hours of Fri morning. And looks like thicknesses will be in the low-mid 540`s as the front comes through, but behind it, only a few showers may exist as high pressure starts to build in for the weekend. EURO/GEM/Canadian and ensemble charts don`t really start to pump up our ridge until Sun or Mon. But it does look pretty nice as by Sun afternoon 850mb temps are near or at +10c with 500mb heights in the 576dm range. So given what is shown, we should easily see highs low-mid 70`s with maybe even some upper 70`s as shown by last nights WRF12z. However, the MRF-MOS shows low-mid 60`s for the weekend, which may be too cool given that the ridge really begins to strengthen on Sun. So will continue to look at the models and see what they do with the ridge

Possible ridging...

looking at the 00zGFS tonight, I see that weak ridge is still showing to slide through here for the Wed/Thurs period with 500mb heights in the upper 550`s. But then come late Thurs afternoon and into Fri, it appears a weak system slides through our region for a few showers at times and also near zonal flow with heights near 570dm. So would say highs in the mid-upper 50`s to perhaps low 60`s for that day. And for Sat, looks like skies may be mostly cloudy with chance of showers as a weakening system just off shore brushes us, though heights still stay around the low 570`s. And like the 18zGFS, the 00zGFS begins to build the ridge up some by later Sun and into Monday for some further warming and drying.

Showers likely with possible afternoon T-Storms tomorrow

Good evening all.

In the very short term, it appears that tomorrow afternoon could be on the convective side of things as a cold -36, -37c 500mb trough moves over our region during the day tomorrow as seen on the 12zWRF at hour 36 or 5pm. Also if you`ll notice behind this well defined frontal system seen on the attached visible satellite imagery, that there is plenty of showery cumulus clouds behind the system. These cumulus/ cumulus congustus clouds will make their way over Western Wa tomorrow in the unstable air mass that is due to come over us. So with a cool/cold unstable air mass and 850mb temps of about -6c, we could very see some isolated and scattered T-Storm activity. But to get any t-storms, we`ll need to see some good sun breaks to get the heating and convetion going.

Another factor in the unstable air will be CAPE values, though those look margnial and in the 300-500j/kg range with lifted indexes of -1 to -3c(see AVN model) and LAPSE of -8 to -9c as shown by the SREF-Short Range Ensemble forecast-(see sref model image). So with unstable air mass in place, we could also see ice pellet showers and or smal hail. With that said, tomorrow afternoon could be bit of a interesting day as those showery type clouds move in over our region.

So feel free to comment on this! :o)

Weekend weather outlook...

Checking out the models here tonight, the 12z/18GFS shows a weak system sliding through during the over night hours of tonight and into tomorrow. The 00z this this as well. This is currently shown on inferred satellite imagery. So tomorrow, expect another day with clouds and a few showers at times with highs in the 40`s/ 50`s. Now for Sunday, this is still looking to a fairly wet and cool day with highs probably around 50. So not the best of days for doing anything outdoors. So it`ll be rainy at times with gray skies to boot. Mon/Tue will be cool and showery at times with thicknesses in the low-mid 520`s and 850mb temps between -4 and -6c depending on what model you choose. So could be some snow showers in the mountains. In fact, WRF00z is showing the Cascades picking up several inches of snow from Mon morning through late Mon afternoon/evening with North Cascades picking around a foot a or more of snow. So over all, a cool and unsettled pattern can be expected over the next several days with possibly a return to warmer/drier weather starting about Wed or Thurs as ridging looks to take place into the extended period.

Note: Both images shown are for early Sun morning at 8am with first image showing the 850mb winds and second image showing our frontal system coming for Sun.

Cooler temps this week

Looking at the models here, temps should still be mild through at least Sat, though not nearly as 'warm' with highs in the low to mid 50`s with just a few showers at times but it does`nt look like it`ll be all that wet of a week. And mainly the only weather system to come through this week, besides the weekend, is a weakening frontal system that looks to come through for during the day Thurs with a very weak but small trough following behind it. So not to bad for rest of the work week as Fri still looks mainly dry though could be a few sprinkles here/there. However once Sunday comes around, that looks to be a fairly wet and cool day with us possibly seeing highs in the 40`s as we get the cool NWLY flow aloft.

For Sun into first half of the work week, both GFS and EURO and also a few ensemble charts show a large trough moving over our region and over large part of the Western US for cool/showery and unsettled conditions with snow in the Cascades for Sunday. So an unsettled pattern looks to be with us for the weekend and into the start of perhaps the upcoming work week ahead.

Attach image is from the 18zGFS in which it shows a weak system coming through for Thurs morning.

A look at the week ahead...

From what is seen on this morning 12WRF, is that things cool down just a bit for the Wed-Fri period with some rain and showers at times as a cooler airmass moves over region with SW-Westerly flow aloft. 925mb temps during this period look to be in the 0 to +4c with 850mb in the - to -6c range with the colder 850mb temps looking to near the weekend. Fri looks mainly dry, though likely cloudy, so perhaps an ok day for hiking again, but looks like the chance of a 'few' showers may be with us. Sat also features some showers at times, but Sun appears to feature a ridge. Should also note that WRF12z has going from upper 60`s to low-mid 70`s for Mon/Tue, down to the 40`s/50`s for highs for the Wed-Fri period. So bit of a noticeable temp change for mid-late week. 18zGFS NCEP model shows similar conditions and looks like the transition for the cool down will come on Wed morning when a cold front will slide through here with a deep trough slowly sliding through our region behind the front with some showers at times with Fri also looking to be mainly dry except for maybe a few mountain showers. GFS also still in line with some ridging on Sun.

However on the flip side, EURO model is still showing the continued idea of unsettled weather right through the weekend with GEM model keeping unsettled with rain/showers at times. But in looking at the 12z/18z ensemble charts, some of them seem to be more inline with recent GFS runs and in showing a weak ridge for late in the week. So given what is shown, the model confidence remains low at this time for later in the week due to model uncertainty.