Chance of convection with WARM WEATHER to come

Still looks like there could possibly be some t-storms over the Cascades and maybe over the lowlands for Sun afternoon as 12zWRF shows CAPE of about 1600-1800j/kg(12z img is for 5pm Sun) with SREF model showing CAPE of around 2500j/kg over Cascades and lowlands. LI`s pretty low across the Western Wa lowlands as they are showing -4, -5c. And SREF model also showing 1000-2000j/kg MLCAPE & MUCAPE as well. Though lapse rates are pretty small and showing about a 3c/km, so not really a good thing to see when wanting t-storms. On the other hand though, both 6z/12GFS models as well as last nights 00zGFS, does still bring a weak vort max through during the day today or into tomorrow, but not really seeing anything come in over the weekend. But any storms that do pop up over the weekend(best chance looks to be Sat, Sun & Mon) think it`ll likely be high based as the airmass at 850/700mb looks moderately moist with 500mb airmass looking some what moist. So main threat from any storms that show up will likely be lightning strikes if any do occur.


As far as our strong ridge goes, looks like it will hold strongly through possibly middle of next week as thicknesses look to be anywhere from the mid 570`s to lower 580`s. And with 850mb temps on the 6z/12zGFS showing +20 to +24c and 500mb heights in the 588 to 594dm range, we should likely be in or around the mid 90`s this weekend into early part of next week. And when looking at the 12z MRF-MOS for Seattle, it shows Mon/Tue being the WARMEST days with high of 88 both days where as the 12zWRF shows roughly about the same with highs in the upper 80`s to low 90`s for Mon/Tue and Wed as well. Now for later in the week, both GFS models show a surface and or upper level thermal low moving somewhere up the off shore waters of the OR/WA coast which looks to give us some SELY winds aloft which could bring us some showers/ convective showers, so will just have to see how this all plays out. So overall, looks like it`s going to be VERY WARM with lots of sunshine. So take it easy over the weekend and stay hydrated as much as you can.