From what is shown in the latest series of models from this morning, is that a very nice and mostly sunny weekend looks to be in store for us. And also should be rather mild with highs in the 60`s with perhaps Sun or Mon following week being the warmest of the two days. Our ridge looks to start moving in by around later Fri into Sat with drying and warming taking place as both GFS 6z/12z models are showing E-SELY flow at the surface while having SELY flow at 850-700mb. 10m temps look to have a nice jump and rise up to +10c with 850mb temps right around +4c on Sat and then up near +6c for Sun/Mon. But as just mentioned, think Sun/Mon could be ''warm'' and likely above avg by April standards(avg. high for me is 59) as we get near or right at easterly flow at the surface and at the 850/700/500mb level for that Sun/Mon period. And this flow aloft will be due to an area of large low pressure that eventually gets cut-off from the northern jet with the low sinking south along the west coast or moving into OR/California by early next week.That being said, other such models like the GFS/GEM/Canadian/MRF, they are coming around to more recent runs of the EURO model....including todays 12z EURO that has been and is still showing split-flow taking place for first half of next week. Assuming this comes to fruition, this means that the weather for us here in WA/OR will be calm with not much going on as we`ll be mainly dry and in no-mans land with systems shearing/splitting apart as they enter the upper level splitting jet. So going out on a limb here, would say mild conditions with temps a little above average for first half of next week. Even 12zWRF is showing highs near 70 for Sun and chance of a few places seeing lower 70`s Monday. But that is getting to far in the lon range to even forecast any such temps. So we`ll see how it goes.
I hope that later next week we get moisture. If split flow does develop next week, will the low pressure systems move through to the south of Washington? If they do move south, does that mean that Utah will be affected by the systems? I will be at Eden, Utah all of next week and I am praying for a lot of powder.
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ReplyDeleteNote to self: had to delete my own comment cause made one little goof up. :o)
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Thanks Joseph.:o)
The 18zGFS is out and it shows the continued trend of nice weather for the weekend with at least mid 60`s from what I see as 10m temps show +10c for Sun/Mon. Should also be above avg. for both days as well I`m thinking. It`s a ways off, but Mon/Tue continue to look dry/mild with easterly flow at the surface through 700mb or so. But over the past several runs, the trend has been drier and drier until maybe mid-week.
Am really thinking about heading back up to Tiger Mountain on Sat.
Hard to say Brett if the low will move into the inner mountain west and produce snow for you in Utah. Mountain weather is like flipping a coin. Could be sunny or could be snowy. Ya just know don`t know till it arrives.
ReplyDeleteBut anyway, the past few runs have been to move the low down the west coast and maybe somewhere over California.
Anybody else have comments/thoughts about the upcoming ridge and possible split flow?