Showers likely with possible afternoon T-Storms tomorrow

Good evening all.

In the very short term, it appears that tomorrow afternoon could be on the convective side of things as a cold -36, -37c 500mb trough moves over our region during the day tomorrow as seen on the 12zWRF at hour 36 or 5pm. Also if you`ll notice behind this well defined frontal system seen on the attached visible satellite imagery, that there is plenty of showery cumulus clouds behind the system. These cumulus/ cumulus congustus clouds will make their way over Western Wa tomorrow in the unstable air mass that is due to come over us. So with a cool/cold unstable air mass and 850mb temps of about -6c, we could very see some isolated and scattered T-Storm activity. But to get any t-storms, we`ll need to see some good sun breaks to get the heating and convetion going.

Another factor in the unstable air will be CAPE values, though those look margnial and in the 300-500j/kg range with lifted indexes of -1 to -3c(see AVN model) and LAPSE of -8 to -9c as shown by the SREF-Short Range Ensemble forecast-(see sref model image). So with unstable air mass in place, we could also see ice pellet showers and or smal hail. With that said, tomorrow afternoon could be bit of a interesting day as those showery type clouds move in over our region.

So feel free to comment on this! :o)