From what is seen on this morning 12WRF, is that things cool down just a bit for the Wed-Fri period with some rain and showers at times as a cooler airmass moves over region with SW-Westerly flow aloft. 925mb temps during this period look to be in the 0 to +4c with 850mb in the - to -6c range with the colder 850mb temps looking to near the weekend. Fri looks mainly dry, though likely cloudy, so perhaps an ok day for hiking again, but looks like the chance of a 'few' showers may be with us. Sat also features some showers at times, but Sun appears to feature a ridge. Should also note that WRF12z has going from upper 60`s to low-mid 70`s for Mon/Tue, down to the 40`s/50`s for highs for the Wed-Fri period. So bit of a noticeable temp change for mid-late week. 18zGFS NCEP model shows similar conditions and looks like the transition for the cool down will come on Wed morning when a cold front will slide through here with a deep trough slowly sliding through our region behind the front with some showers at times with Fri also looking to be mainly dry except for maybe a few mountain showers. GFS also still in line with some ridging on Sun.
However on the flip side, EURO model is still showing the continued idea of unsettled weather right through the weekend with GEM model keeping unsettled with rain/showers at times. But in looking at the 12z/18z ensemble charts, some of them seem to be more inline with recent GFS runs and in showing a weak ridge for late in the week. So given what is shown, the model confidence remains low at this time for later in the week due to model uncertainty.
However on the flip side, EURO model is still showing the continued idea of unsettled weather right through the weekend with GEM model keeping unsettled with rain/showers at times. But in looking at the 12z/18z ensemble charts, some of them seem to be more inline with recent GFS runs and in showing a weak ridge for late in the week. So given what is shown, the model confidence remains low at this time for later in the week due to model uncertainty.
Hello Andy,
ReplyDeleteI have a quick question (well, maybe quick-not sure). Does the cold winter of 08-09 mean a warm(er) summer this year? Or can you not really tell?
Thanks.
You know Brian, I`m not exactly sure what this really means for us but would think the possibility is there for us to have the chance at being warmer this year.
ReplyDeleteHi Andy, I've heard that his past winter was considered a nuetral/la nina winter. Do you know if the La Nina is expected to remain through winter 09/10 or if we will change into an El Nino pattern.
ReplyDeleteThe local ski areas are selling 09/10 season passes at a huge discount right now. Was wondering if it will be a dry winter or not.
Thanks,
Well I`m not sure if we`ll go into an el-nino or not, but when I was over at the CPC site early last month, I did read where we would be in a weak la-nina stage through month of may and then going neutral into the possibility of a weak el-nino later on think it was. So if thats the case, we might could have dry start to the 09/10 mountain snow pack but also have a mild/wet winter.
ReplyDelete