Folks... do you all remember my post last night about me mentioning the chance of convection last night for the incoming system for Thurs? Well perhaps I was a step ahead of the Seattle NWS as they now make mention of it in their 9:25am AFD and they say that the chance will be over the coast and Puget sound and points southward. So looks like I may be making the right call here..
The attached images that are shown are for 7am Thurs. First image is the UW-NAM 12z and second image the UW-WRF 12z GFS both of which are very similar in showing near -40c 500mb low center nearly on top of us.And this was the reason I made the call last night of the slight possibility of seeing a 'quick' lightning flash with 'quick' rumble of thunder. The colder air aloft interacting with the warmer air here at the surface. And though convective parameters are pretty sparse, the SREF model does show surface LI`s barely reaching 0c for early tomorrow morning. And with a cold upper level low passing through, would say in addition to seeing possible snow, that ice pellet showers are also possible.
Andy,
ReplyDeleteI know yesterday people were thinking probably no on the convergence zone to set up tonight, but they added they would have to watch the winds carefully when it all came in.
Any thing interesting happening on the wind that will allow the convergence to get going?
Brian... haven`t really seen anything just yet in terms of CZ as the radar from Seattle NWS is down till what sounds like tomorrow afternoon sometime. And did`nt really see anything on the WRF that showed a CZ in terms of rain and or snow. Just spotty showers.
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