Rain at times this weekend.

18zGFS/NAM as well as 00zGFS/NAM still showing a fairly decent cold front coming through for either late Sun night or early Mon morning with a deep sub 980mb low just off the off shore waters of the OR/WA coast. And appears that this deep low will stay well off shore, but still perhaps close enough that the OR/WA coast could see some breezy winds as it moves northward. After Monday, cool and showery conditions continue through mid-week under SW flow aloft as a deep trough of low pressure sends periods of showers up our way. Looks like a cool/cold upper level area of low pressure will settle over WA for late in the week with flow aloft turning more N-NWLY with both 500mb heights and surface thicknesses dropping to the lower 520`s. Though 00zGFS shows 516dm heights right over us, but take the models for what their worth. Wont say thing about lowland snow just yet as it`s still long range, but it`ll be cool and unsettled with the trough over head.

Rain & showers for the weekend. Breezy at the coast?

The new 00zGFS tonight still shows the idea of decent cold front coming through here around Sun afternoon. And at surface/850 and 700mb level during this time appear to be SE to Easterly with SWLY winds at 500mb just ahead of the cold front. So could be a little drying in the upper layers until the SW flow reaches down to the surface. However, if you look at the 00zNAM on the NCEP site, the front comes in a little later and around pre-dawn Monday. So either way, it looks like a fairly decent frontal system coming through late in the weekend with showers following behind the frontal system.

As for wind, am still thinking
that from what is seen, that it`ll be breezy to windy at times along the
WA coast as this low appears to deepen
near 974mb as it rides up the off shore
waters of the OR/WA coast. But taken for
what it`s worth, the low should stay far
enough off shore to where it wont cause
any major problems at the immediate
coast and inland coastal areas.

Both maps attached show the deep low for this Sun afternoon.

A little comment regarding weather/anonymous users

Okay...

I make one comment about the weekend weather this afternoon, and already two anons on Cliffs blog have shot me down because of it. I know it`s Cliff`s blog and he does excellent job of providing us info when time allows. And I`m glad he take time to show us any info he has. But think to really minimize the users ''hiding in the dark'', that the anon user feature should be turned off. This I think would really help in seeing who is actually posting rather than trying to guess or wonder who is. And think those anon users should keep quite when it comes to making bad comments about someones interpretation of the weather a couple days out(Like me, who likes to say what the weather could do a few days out.) Like anyone else on his blog, I should be able to at least say what my take is on the weather a day or two out. I mean, should I be shot down by anon`s users? No of course not! At least on my blog, the anon user feature is turned off and I see who is posting. It kinda hurts when ya get shot down because you make one small comment about the weather a couple days or so out.

Breezy over the weekend?

From what is seen in the latest models, is that it appears a moderate area of low of pressure will ride up along the off-shore waters of the OR/ WA coast under S-SW flow aloft. While strength/ timing varies, think it could be breezy for late in the weekend as a frontal system looks to swing through while main low stays out over open waters. MRF/GEM/EURO/ Canadian show the area of low pressure for late weekend as well. So at this point and from what is shown, think the likely place to have breezy to perhaps windy weather will be along the WA/OR coast. NAM also shows an area of low pressure for late weekend, but perhaps a little more further out off the coast and also weaker. So will see how models play the weekend weather.

Weak ridging for Thurs/Fri

Thurs into Fri look to dry and basically be precip free though there may be the isolated shower during the early morning, but skies should become partly cloudy by the afternoon hours as as the air mass just above us dries out under NW flow. Though despite some afternoon clearing, temps will likely be in the 40`s as 925mb temps will still be below freezing and showing about -3, -4c with 850mb temps between -6 and -8c. The weak ridge looks to last into Fri with bit of a warm up with low-mid level temps warming above freezing. However, the ridge will be short lived as rain and showers look to be back in the forecast for the weekend. Still a bit early, but it could be breezy or windy over the weekend for some areas of Western Wa. But now, both days look dry with some sunshine.

The attached map is tonights 00z showing Thurs afternoon.

Cool day with rain and snow...

Todays weather was filled with cool and showery conditions. In fact, you could of been under a heavy shower at any given time of the day with the slightly unstable air mass aloft due the passage of the cold front and upper level low currently now off the WA coast.

As far as snow goes, and as shown by the WRF models, the areas up north are the ones getting their turn at seeing some snow. And per area WSDOT cams, it looks to be pretty snowy up around the B-Ham and at the WA/CA border with likely a few inches up there easily. We may still see a little snow here in the central sound, but think it`ll be pretty spotty where you get snow at your house and few miles away, your friend gets nothing. At the most, perhaps a quick couple inches if under a moderate shower, but dont expect much. Of course, we here in Western WA are some what prone to the odd supprize here/there.

On another note.... sounds like Seattle NWS radar is down till tomorrow afternoon sometime. What agreat time to be radar blind huh? Lets hope it comes ASAP!

Possible T-Storms with incoming system

Folks... do you all remember my post last night about me mentioning the chance of convection last night for the incoming system for Thurs? Well perhaps I was a step ahead of the Seattle NWS as they now make mention of it in their 9:25am AFD and they say that the chance will be over the coast and Puget sound and points southward. So looks like I may be making the right call here..

The attached images that are shown are for 7am Thurs. First image is the UW-NAM 12z and second image the UW-WRF 12z GFS both of which are very similar in showing near -40c 500mb low center nearly on top of us.

And this was the reason I made the call last night of the slight possibility of seeing a 'quick' lightning flash with 'quick' rumble of thunder. The colder air aloft interacting with the warmer air here at the surface. And though convective parameters are pretty sparse, the SREF model does show surface LI`s barely reaching 0c for early tomorrow morning. And with a cold upper level low passing through, would say in addition to seeing possible snow, that ice pellet showers are also possible.

Colder air moving into tonight (briefly)

Good morning folks.

As seen by the inferred and water wavpor imagery this morning, the area of low pressure is now somewhere off the northern Vancouver Is. coast with cold front just now coming ashore at the NW WA coast here at about 5:30am. The showery air mass behind this cold front is clearly seen and this is what will bring in our marginally cool/cold air into Western Wa once this cold front passes through here later tonight. The area of low pressure associated with the frontal system is what will give us the showery precipitation in the form of snow or rain/snow mix depending on your elevation. And due to the showery nature, it`s hard to say who will and wont see snow falling but think some of us should see a bit of snow of some amount for later tonight and into tomorrow.

Snow possible for Thursday in some areas...

Hello all.

As all of you may be aware.... some minor snow accumulations may be possible for pre-dawn Thursday and into early morning daylight hours.

The attached model is for 4pm Thurs showing the 24hr totals. Have also attached the 925mb map showing the weak low at 10pm Wed just off the NW WA coast.

This possible snow fall, though not so wide spread as for what is shown, will be due and area of low pressure swinging SW out of southern BC and over the WA coast by late tomorrow night. This low then appears to drop farther south and land over Oregon for
later Thurs as it weakens even more.
So the low should quickly fill in as it
comes inland. So while the snow chance may be possible, hard to say who will and wont get snow due to the nature of the low as it`ll be showery in nature. And if you notice in the 24hr totals, it gives a big ol` snow shadow across a swath of the Puget sound region. So between the 00zUW-NAM and UW WRF, you`ll have to take it for it`s worth as it gives different ideas on how it`ll play out. But any rate, it dose show colder air dropping over us LATE tomorrow into Thursday.

And despite a rather cold and near -40c lobe of area of cold air at 500mb moving down over Western WA by late in the day, I don`t see any surface or mid-level support for convection, but with cold air aloft, there could
be the ''one or two-hit'' wonder clap of thunder with quick
flash of lightning. Maybe even some ice pellets. But again,
no noticable support showing up for convetion.

So to sum up.....and if snows, it should be short lived as it appears we
warm back up the next day with highs probably near 50. So keep checking
those models!

Mild day with evening showers

Today was yet another day with a high near 60 though not quite as warm as the past couple days. My high was 58 today. Though majority of the day was dry, some showers did come through about 3pm-ish or so and lasted a for a little while. Enough for me to pick up 0.25" worth of rain for the day so far. The pics you were taken this evening.

As far as this weeks weather goes, it appears that showers at times will continue through the work week with conditions turning cooler by end of the week. And this appears to be systems/ cold front dropping down from the north while a nearly cut-off low gets positioned off the WA coast and sends more bands of showers into Western WA. Could be a bit breezy as isobars look a bit compact together. And the mountains may very well see some snow as 850mb temps cool to about -7c by late this week. So should be chilly with snow at times in the Cascades/ Olympics. The 18z surface map shown, shows the possible cooler conditions for the time frame mentioned.

Showers at times through late week. Thoughts?

After we get rid of this spinning area of low pressure off the coast for mid week, it appears that some models want to keep the 'showers at times' theme going into late week.

And as shown by the 12zEURO and 500mb 18zGFS chart, it appears yet another low, this time a nearly cut-off low, appears to land it`s self right off the WA/OR coast and sending at least a few showers over our region. Though this low is weak, it`ll likely give mainly clouds but with showers thrown in. And it may be a bit coolish as 850mb temps appear to be around -6c with thicknesses in the lower 520`s. So if this pans out, the Cascades/Olympics may pick up a little snow at times. And for later in the week into the upcoming weekend, this low moves into our region and also fades out/ gets adsorbed into the near zonal flow. So our weather this week will continue to be a little unsettled with main action and upper level jet being aimed right at California right through this weekend.

A spring like day

Todays weather was one of those days where it felt like early spring and everyone enjoying the sunshine. Well if you thought it was a mild day, then you are right. We were mainly in the upper 50`s to low 60`s this afternoon with Sammamish coming in at 61, Enumclaw 60, Kenmore 62, and Bellevue coming in with a high of 58. I myself here on Hollywood hill in Woodinville had a high of 60. But when riding my bike to Marymoore this afternoon, my indoor/outdoor thermometer read between 62 and 65 as shown by the second pic which reads pretty close to 65. So certainly a nice day. The frist pic was taken near Redmond.

In other news and a quick look at the 18zGFS for tomorrow, looks like showers should be over us tomorrow morning with on/off showers through the day as the rotating low send moisture in our direction under SW flow aloft. In fact, current Seattle radar shows VERY light showers over the SW corner of the WA caost. So should see some noticably cool temps tomorrow as well as into Monday.

Rain and showers for the weekend

As shown by the 00zGFS, it appears that GFS models and earlier models from today still show rain and showers over us for Sunday under SW flow aloft. So Sunday should be a day with clouds and scattered showers and also cooler conditions. The Mon into Tue should feature a continuation of showers as the area of low pressure now currently taking shape off the northern California coast, spins around and thus sends rotating bands of moisture into our area. So in the short term, our dry and sunny weather will be coming to end after tomorrow.