ashore for tomorrow night into early Tue
with WINDY to blustery conditions across Western WA. This type of system would normally be seen during the winter months, but guess mother nature booked a very late visit to the PNW as this is the month of May! This isn`t Nov/ Dec or Jan mind you! This is spring time!
Anyway....
Looking at various models tonight, a pretty vigorous frontal system will be coming through our region for late tomorrow night with rain and some breezy to blustery conditions into Tue morning as the trailing frontal system slides through here. The WA coast looks like it will feel the main effects of the storm system, and thus having the stronger winds there with possibility of low-end gales off the off-shore waters of the WA coast for during the later afternoon hours as off shore surface winds show 40-45kts from the SE with at least 40-50kts along the WA at 850mb. Though however, it appears that majority of the models keep the strong area of low pressure well north of us and crossing or clipping northern Vancouver Island while 00zNAM-WRF has it crossing over central Vancouver Island. But models seem to think that the low will swing over the northern part of the island, but strength dose vary between the models as they show anywhere between 980 to 989mb. So there are certainly some differences on how strong the storm will be, but think we all will some breezy weather into part of Tue after frontal passage.
Both images shown are for 2am Tue. Feel free to comment. :o)
Andy,
ReplyDeleteCliff Mass mentioned something in his blog about the storm coming closer then forecasted, based off of the satellite imagery at noon. Do you still see this happening now, at roughly 5:45?
We're getting slowly down to crunch time on the wind, so I would be thinking someone could see pretty much the exact path its going to take. Maybe I'm wrong.
Thanks.
Brian, from what I see right now on the UW visible/ inferred satellite loop imagery is that main area of low pressure, which as of this afternoon at 2pm shows 980mb, looks to be heading toward northern Vancouver Island. However, and down stream of the frontal system, it appears that maybe a second area of low pressure might be taking place.
ReplyDeleteWatch the loop and notice the band of clouds flare up along the Wa coast in the last few frames.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv8km_enhanced+12
Yeah, I see what you're talking about Andy.
ReplyDeleteLet's say, hypothetically of course, that a second low set up and went across Southern Vancover Island. With the first (main) low, and the second (smaller) low, would that make for windier conditions?
I mean, I know it depends on the mb's of the second low. But at this point, would it just make it windier no matter what? Or would it counteract each other somehow?
I would maybe think there would be some sort of counteraction, but I`m no expert. :o) Though if there was another low, it would probably be weaker as the main system would have the majority of the energy. That`s my thinking.
ReplyDelete