Continued WARM & Mostly sunny

Good evening to all.

Seeing the latest models and also past couple days, it looks like WARM and mostly sunny weather will continue through the work week with highs each day over interior lowlands looking to be in the low-mid 80`s with some upper 80`s also possible later in the week.

And our dry weather will be due split-flow aloft with high pressure in the GOA and a cut-off low(see satellite images) off the coast of California. Main affect from this low for the work week looks to be to convection over the Cascades of Oregon and perhaps WA as well, but convective parameters the last several days including today continue to favor the OR Cascades where instability will be the most favorable. But it`s also possible some convection could fire over the SW WA Cascades, but that continues to look like a small chance, though debris clouds could certainly drift northward over WA Cascades like they did this evening. Out cut-off low to the south looks to slowly drift southward over the next sever days and eventually weaken further and moving inland over California late in the week to which it then appears to move into the inner mountain west for the weekend with possible convection firing over higher terrain areas.

So over all, and though WARM, it looks like a really nice week ahead. A chance of showers might be back in our forecast for the weekend with highs being a bit cooler, though still mild, but also not as warm as to what we may see through Friday. So enjoy the early summer weather, but also take it easy, take breaks, cool off and put on that sun screen!

Warm day & ''Clear air'' mode + Nice weekend

To start, today was a fabulous day here in the interior and over WA State as well thanks to building high pressure which looks to be with us through the weekend with highs in the mid 70`s and maybe even a few low 80`s under mostly sunny skies. So nice weekend shaping up!

Also to note and for those of you who have looming over the models last couple days, you know that there is the chance at some convective precip over what appears to be the SW WA Cascades and also the Oregon Cascades as CAPE values will be impressively high up around 1400j/kg and Lifted index values pretty low and at around -4, -5c. But moisture looks limited, but some will be present so am thinking high based afternoon t-storms with lightning being main issue. Don`t really expect them to come Westward off the Cascades as greatest instability will be over the higher terrain of the Cascades. But if anything forms, it looks to be scattered. So best chance from what was see this morning and yesterday as well, looks to be tomorrow afternoon and Sat afternoon. The interior lowlands of western WA will see mainly clear skies and mild conditions.

Ok, now to radar(see link and image). It appears the Seattle-WSR may be in ''clear air mode'' as it currently shows a blob of false precip moving up from the SW and heading toward the central sound. This more likely just a bunch of pollen/ dust, ect. OR! Could be a flock of birds flying in our direction from the south sound this evening. I have seen something similar before on a clear day of when it showed flase precip. So can`t always take what you see on radar for granted as it may show something there when in fact it`s not.

Enjoy the weekend you all!
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?atx_n0r+/2h/

More sunny and pleasant days this work week...

Checking out the models this evening, this coming work week.... Mon-Fri still looks to feature mainly sunny, pleasant days and highs in the low-mid 70`s with perhaps mid-upper 70`s to maybe 80 or so on Thursday.

Current surface map(see graphic) shows the dominating high pressure just to our SW that has been in control of our weather since about Friday. It also shows a weakening cold front headed our way as well. Though this cold front.....well cool front....since it will only have has us seeing slightly cooler temps with highs in the mid 60....looks to maybe give some LIGHT precip in the form of some possible sprinkles to the WA coast and perhaps the Cascades, but otherwise, lowland interior areas should remain dry as the weak front moves through here during the day Tues.

And then for the Wed through Fri now, or so it appears, models still show our ridge to amplify some with 500 heights rising into the mid 570`s with thicknesses in the low 560`s. So as mentioned, Thurs possibly looks like our warmest day of the week. For the weekend, our ridge might end up weakening as a trough look to maybe clip our region with highs back in the 60`s. But over all and with exception of Tues front, the week ahead looks pretty nice.

Pleasant weekend coming up.

Looking at the models this evening, not to much has changed as a surface ridge will be us tomorrow through the weekend and slowly building strength at the surface while flow aloft is near zonal and flat. So with rising thicknesses to near the low 550`s or in the 550`s and heights nearing 570dm, we should highs in the mid 60`s tomorrow and Fri with highs perhaps getting into lower 70`s on Sat or Sun as 850mb temps still look to rise to around +10c. Per 12zWRF, looks like we maybe could see some lower 80`s in the interior central sound for Mon afternoon, but that remains to be seen. GEM/EURO still showing ridging as well. So over all, should be a pleasant partly to even mostly sunny and enjoyable weekend. So get out and enjoy the sunshine! :o)

One more nice day, then showers & slightly cooler highs

Latest models from today including the 18zGFS, shows that Monday will offer one more nice day with highs looking to be in 70s in the interior with mostly sunny skies. Though by later Mon afternoon/evening, clouds should be on the increase as a weak system slides into our area for early Tue with coolish, but short-wave trough moving through during the day Tue. So will likely see showers at times with highs in the mid-upper 50`s to near 60 or lower 60`s as thicknesses lower to around 540m and 850mb temps drop to near 0c. Showers look to linger into Wed, but should be spotty as an area of high pressure is shown to build back over us from the West for mid-late week and into the weekend possibly with what looks to be pleasant afternoon highs with at least partly cloudy skies as heights rise back up into the mid 560`sdm and 850mb temps around +5, +6c. Flow aloft at 500mb from about mid-week through the weekend looks nearly zonal. So some mornings may and or might start out mostly cloudy, but should see some sun by afternoon time. So despite the one and only system coming through for the work week, the week it`s looks to be good shape. Should also say that from roughly Wed through Sun, the WRF shows forecasted highs to be in the low-mid 60`s. So as already mentioned, should be pleasant for about the second half of the work week.

High pressure for the weekend and maybe Monday to.

So looking at the GFS models here, a strong ridge of high pressure will be with us and over our region for the weekend and possibly lasting into Monday. Should also see highs in the upper 60`s to low 70`s to maybe a few mid 70`s as 500mb heights look to be in the mid to upper 570`sdm with thicknesses in the mid 560`s. 850mb temps during time not looking any different from previous runs and still show right around +10c. For Monday, it appears the our ridge may strengthen just a bit, but still seeing highs in the 70`s, though it appears there is some westerly flow aloft which will keep us from getting to warm. Our ridge weakens/ moves east for Tuesday as weak trough moves through our region and actually it looks like the main but weak area of low pressure will be just over the WA/ CA border, but still close enough to give us clouds and possibly a few showers.

For the longer term, GFS shows maybe a return of some what strong ridging, but looking more or less flat ridging, however it looks dry and pleasant from about mid week through the weekend possibly as 500mb heights don`t really drop all that much and stay in the 570`s and thicknesses in the 550`s to low 560`s. But if looking at the 00zEURO, it shows generally some what flat ridging through most of the five day work week. On the other hand, GEM and MRF model both show through to still come through around Tue/Wed time frame with some weak ridging after that. So we`ll just have to see how it plays out for next week.

One more weather system this week, then drying/warming

So looking at a few models here, we`ll have rain and showers at time for later tomorrow afternoon evening as a decent frontal system swings through for later Wed into Thurs(see satellite image). So probably see partly cloudy to filtered sunshine as the next system(currently heading toward the WA coast) comes ashore during the day tomorrow. So should be another day of similar high temps in the upper 50`s to 60 or low 60`s.

For Fri though, it still looks like we dry things out and also warming up as thicknesses rise into the upper 550`s with 500mb heights rising into the low-mid 570`s over the weekend. But as the GFS models would have it, they have weakend the ridge just bit to where we may have the possibility of seeing some high clouds at times. But should still remain mostly sunny with highs perhaps in the 70`s to maybe around, and dare I say....80 degrees. But folks, this is all at FACE VALUE, so take it for what it`s worth. Canadian model also shows moderate ridging over the weekend. But if you were to believe the 12zECMWF, it shows an amplified and very warm ridge right over the PNW for next Mon/Tue where as the 12z/18z and just now seeing the incoming 00z, shows a coolish trough dropping over us from the NorthWest with rain/ showers at times. So will continue to see how models do with the upcoming ridge.

Nice this weekend, but changes come later Sunday.

Looking at the latest GFS models....looks like our nice weather will come to end late tomorrow as a weakening cold front slides in here for Mon morning with a cool 528m/ 540dm 500mb trough following behind the front for late Mon evening into early Tue with 850mb temps dropping down to between -3 and -5c. And with this cool trough sliding through and 500mb temps of about -33, -34c....it will certainly make for a coolish couple of days under westerly flow aloft and showers at times. WRF-GFS showing highs only in the mid 50`s for Mon/Tue. Paradise Mt.Rainier will likely pick up a bit more snow with this incoming short wave trough that is shown to slide through our region. Looks like a short break for early Wed as a short wave, but weak high pressure slides through. But alas, should see increasing clouds by mid-late day Wed as a decent cold front is already making it to the WA coast during this time. The cold front slides through for Thursday with rain looking to turn to showers for later Thurs with more showers Fri as a short wave trough/ 500mb vort max is forecasted to slide through on Fri. And for the upcoming weekend, GFS models still on track for Drying/warming starting Sat with ridging becoming more strongly in place over PNW and building in strength for later Sun into Monday/Tue of the following week with mild/warm weather possibly. So we`ll see what happens.

Continued unsettled through this Thursday.....

Good evening to all.

Getting a look at a few models here, our unsettled and some what cool and showery weather will continue through Thursday. Now we currently have a small break this evening and are now in between systems with temporary clearing across parts of Western WA as the remnants of todays frontal systems continues to head away from us.

For tomorrow though, we should see increasing clouds/rain as the next vigorous system(seen circled in red) on inferred satellite, slides across our region and looks to be over us for during the morning/ early afternoon hours, with rain turning to showers by late in day with highs only being in or around the mid 50`s. And behind this incoming upper level piece of energy is a short wave trough with 500mb temps of -30 to -32c and thicknesses of 534meters that slides across our area for during the day Thurs. And like tomorrow, we should see plenty of showers around with high temps being pretty much similar to Wed with highs around or in the mid 50`s. And with a cold, yet small short wave/ vort lobe moving through, there could be that chance of an isolated thunder shower with any sun breaks we get on Thurs, if we do get any at all. But with that cold trough moving in, this means the airmass aloft will and or should be slight unstable. So showers will probably be most numorus when the short wave trough arrives.

Now for the weekend.....well starting Fri, highs look to be a little warmer and in the mid to maybe upper 50`s with improving conditions as a 1032mb ridge of high pressure builds toward our coast. So should see more in the way sun for the later part of Friday. For the weekend, that is looking pretty nice, at least so far in the models, as our ridge looks to be with us for both days with partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the low-mid 60`s both Sat and Sun. So over all, looks like a pretty good weekend in the making!

WINDY system coming ashore..(in May?)

Yep, a winter like system looks to be coming
ashore for tomorrow night into early Tue
with WINDY to blustery conditions across Western WA. This type of system would normally be seen during the winter months, but guess mother nature booked a very late visit to the PNW as this is the month of May! This isn`t Nov/ Dec or Jan mind you! This is spring time!

Anyway....

Looking at various models tonight, a pretty vigorous frontal system will be coming through our region for late tomorrow night with rain and some breezy to blustery conditions into Tue morning as the trailing frontal system slides through here. The WA coast looks like it will feel the main effects of the storm system, and thus having the stronger winds there with possibility of low-end gales off the off-shore waters of the WA coast for during the later afternoon hours as off shore surface winds show 40-45kts from the SE with at least 40-50kts along the WA at 850mb. Though however, it appears that majority of the models keep the strong area of low pressure well north of us and crossing or clipping northern Vancouver Island while 00zNAM-WRF has it crossing over central Vancouver Island. But models seem to think that the low will swing over the northern part of the island, but strength dose vary between the models as they show anywhere between 980 to 989mb. So there are certainly some differences on how strong the storm will be, but think we all will some breezy weather into part of Tue after frontal passage.

Both images shown are for 2am Tue. Feel free to comment. :o)