HOT TEMPERATURES for mid week.....

Per the 12zWRF, looks like Wed/Thurs will be pretty WARM/HOT as by Thus we could see upper 90`s to maybe even, dare I say again, low 100`s. Now this is the first time to show this in this second ''heat wave'' as it has previously shown low-mid 90`s. But after our heat wave, we look to cool back down into the 70`s. And for those two days mentioned, it appears we have southerly flow at 850/500mb, so there may be the chance of storms over the Cascades. And with that moist southerly flow, it may once again feel a bit humid. Also to note is that GFS models are a bit warmer, on the 12z/18z anyway, as they show thicknesses now up to 582 meters and 850mb temps reaching to near +24c depending on what models you choose from. Even the 12zEURO is HOT with heights up to 588dm, so looks like HOT weather will still be in tack for mid-late week. Comments/ questions?

Cooling down some over the weekend..

Looking at some of the models here, it appears that today will be our last REALLY WARM TO HOT day here in the inland Puget sound region as high temp this afternoon once again look to be in the upper 90`s to maybe low 100`s. Tomorrow should be a bit cooler and not so hot with highs off the 12zWRF this morning showing mid-upper 80`s and then about the same for Fri with maybe a few low 90`s in the south sound region. Sun also looks roughly the same with with mid to upper 80`s. So some relief is in site for the weekend, but it`ll be a gradual cool down. Also, our ridge looks to weaken some over the weekend and into next week as an upper level low rides up the west coast coast and eventually being off the OR/WA coast by what looks to be the Wed/Thurs time frame. GFS/Canadian/EURO/GEM model show this upper level low for us as well and also about the same time frame....mid-late week. And if this holds true, then we possibly could have some convective showers over the mountains and maybe the lowlands to as this upper low looks to be having us in SE-ESELY winds aloft. So will have to see how this pans out. Also to note is that 500mb heights are in the 570`s/ 580`s during this time so should be in high 70`s to 80`s, but that is going out on a limb, but dose look to be that way for now.

Have attached a couple photos I took of the cumulonimbus clouds I saw yesterday on my way home that built up over the Cascades during the afternoon hours.

The HEAT BUILDS UP by mid-week

So now regarding the heat and our ridge. Looking through todays 6z through 18zGFS and tonights 0zGFS, they all basically show rather STRONG and amplified ridging that looks to continue through at least Fri/Sat. But the exception to this ridge will be the chance of afternoon/evening storms over the Cascades in which some could drift over the lowlands with few showers, but only briefly(Water vapor image from this evening). But this will do LITTLE in the way to help out with our ever so dry conditions. And adding flue to the fire is our soaring temps each day in which we will be really cooking by mid-late week as highs look to be up in the upper 90`s under mainly sunny skies. But tomorrow may very well perhaps be warmer or just as warm....upper 80`s to maybe 90. Someone on here mentioned about Portland reaching 90 today. But Mon will really be the start of the up hill climb as the HEAT GETS TURNED UP. And 00zWRF for Mon shows upper 80`s to maybe low 90`s with Tue showing low-mid 90`s, Wed-Thurs upper 90`s to maybe A FEW SPOTS seeing lower 100`s and Fri 'cooling' back down a bit with upper 80`s to low 90`s showing up for highs(image shown is for 2pm Wed). So for what the models are worth, it will be pretty darn HOT and pretty SUNNY so you will want to take many breaks and stay WELL HYDRATED as not to over heat.

Things might cool down a bit for the up coming weekend as low level temps and upper level heights lower a bit as models hint at some sort of brief split-flow late in the weekend into early following week. However in regards to the upcoming weekend, it appears there could be a chance of storms over OR/WA as an upper level low swings ashore somewhere to the northern west coast in which this may give us a decent chance as it has in SE-ESELY flow at 500/700mb. But since this out past 5 days, will have to see what models do with this forecasted upper level for the coming weekend ahead.

Chance of convection with WARM WEATHER to come

Still looks like there could possibly be some t-storms over the Cascades and maybe over the lowlands for Sun afternoon as 12zWRF shows CAPE of about 1600-1800j/kg(12z img is for 5pm Sun) with SREF model showing CAPE of around 2500j/kg over Cascades and lowlands. LI`s pretty low across the Western Wa lowlands as they are showing -4, -5c. And SREF model also showing 1000-2000j/kg MLCAPE & MUCAPE as well. Though lapse rates are pretty small and showing about a 3c/km, so not really a good thing to see when wanting t-storms. On the other hand though, both 6z/12GFS models as well as last nights 00zGFS, does still bring a weak vort max through during the day today or into tomorrow, but not really seeing anything come in over the weekend. But any storms that do pop up over the weekend(best chance looks to be Sat, Sun & Mon) think it`ll likely be high based as the airmass at 850/700mb looks moderately moist with 500mb airmass looking some what moist. So main threat from any storms that show up will likely be lightning strikes if any do occur.


As far as our strong ridge goes, looks like it will hold strongly through possibly middle of next week as thicknesses look to be anywhere from the mid 570`s to lower 580`s. And with 850mb temps on the 6z/12zGFS showing +20 to +24c and 500mb heights in the 588 to 594dm range, we should likely be in or around the mid 90`s this weekend into early part of next week. And when looking at the 12z MRF-MOS for Seattle, it shows Mon/Tue being the WARMEST days with high of 88 both days where as the 12zWRF shows roughly about the same with highs in the upper 80`s to low 90`s for Mon/Tue and Wed as well. Now for later in the week, both GFS models show a surface and or upper level thermal low moving somewhere up the off shore waters of the OR/WA coast which looks to give us some SELY winds aloft which could bring us some showers/ convective showers, so will just have to see how this all plays out. So overall, looks like it`s going to be VERY WARM with lots of sunshine. So take it easy over the weekend and stay hydrated as much as you can.

Upper level low for Sun/Mon... then warming back up

An upper level low will move inland over Oregon tomorrow with shower chances and maybe some elevated convection as flow aloft will still be southerly. And 12z run off the WRF does show precip taking shape over the Cascades tomorrow afternoon along with possible showers over the lowlands. Highs off the 12zWRF for tomorrow show temps near 80, but given that it`ll likely be cloudy with at least some mid-high level clouds showing up with low clouds at the coast, I think what is shown on the 12z MRF-MOS of highs in the upper 60`s to maybe 70 seems more reasonable. Monday may even be more cloudier as the upper level low looks to be right over us and a much better shot at showers and also a tad cooler with highs in the mid 60`s. But for Tue-Fri period, both GEM/MRF and 12z Canadian/EURO models show a moderate ridge of sorts building toward and over our region during this period. So we should return to more sunnier weather during this time, but with SWLY flow aloft, there may be some morning low clouds in spots but should still warm up nicely as low level thicknesses look to be in the low 570`s with 500mb heights in the lower 580`s. Also, WRF shows highs in the upper 70`s to low 80`s for the Wed/Thurs period with highs slightly cooler on Fri with highs near 80 and then back to around the mid 70`s on Sat as the ridge breaks down and or slides eastward to make way for another possible trough and chance of showers.

WARMING UP for late week!

Ok folks, not really to much change from earlier GFS models runs though only minor thing is that the GFS has been playing around on/off with the idea of a thermal low off the WA coast for late week and also providing maybe a chance of convection somewhere over the WA coast. But other than that, it appears that a VERY WARM ridge looks to be with us for later this week into possibly the July 4th holiday. So for what the models are worth, should see a gradual warming trend through Wed with highs in the low-mid 70`s under mostly sunny skies with maybe some minor low clouds at the WA coast as flow aloft will still be and is shown to generally be near westerly flow. Ah, but then comes Thurs/Fri(see 12zWRF 5pm Thurs image). This is when thicknesses/upper level heights really rise up with thicknesses near or at 570meters and 500mb heights in the lower 580`sdm with light southerly surface flow. And for what the WRF model has been showing, looks like the 'heat' is on with highs in the mid-upper 80`s Thurs and upper 80`s to perhaps lower 90`s Friday. However and while 12MRF-MOS is warm, it shows mid 80`s for both days just mentioned. Could be just as WARM for Sat as well, with highs in the upper 80`s to maybe right at 90. Looks like we cool temperatures down for Sunday into Monday with highs back near and or low 70`s with chance of showers as large trough looks to dip down over the PNW.

12zGEM/ 12zEURO also show ridging for later in the week, but juts like the GFS, it appears it`s more of a surface ridge as isobars are not all that amplified aloft and actually kind of flat so to speak, but we do still appear to maintain warm ridge with high
thicknesses and upper level heights. So for it`s worth, it looks like it could be a nice night to see the fireworks Sat night. You all will have to see as I will be in Ohio later this week through early next week.

Chance of showers Thursday, then ridging...

Looking at both the 12z/ 18zGFS, and per the 00zMM5-NAM, it looks like a chance of
showers will be with us tomorrow with highs in the mid-upper 60`s. Maybe even a CZ as to what this mornings NAM showed. So we`ll see. But after tomorrow, ridge of high pressure builds into our region for Fri into Sat with 850mb temps near +10c with 500mb heights in the lower 580`s. So should see highs in the mid 70`s and MRF-MOS 12z seems to be right along with this mornings WRF-GFS. In fact it shows a high of 75 for both Sat and Sun. Though a surface/ upper level trough looks to move in here for Sun into Mon with just a small chance of a shower as the trough looks mainly dry, though the flow does turn more of a WSWLY direction during this time. So maybe some mostly cloudy skies, so would say temps in the low-mid 70`s as thicknesses drop to lower 550`s with 500mb heights dropping back to the low 570`s. Looks like our trough continues to drop into our region for Mon into Tue with the small threat of the possibility of maybe a shower here or there being in place. So over all, not to bad for rest of the work week with highs being just a bit above normal for later this week and into early part of the weekend as the a for mentioned ridge looks to give some nice weather. So that is what it looks like for now.

A little rain and some sunshine for the weekend/ early work week

A look at the 12z/18z shows a chance and perhaps some showers for during the day tomorrow as a weakening frontal system slides through. Might not see much out of it, but could pick up some light amounts when and where showers do fall. Highs off the WRF show around 70 so should a bit cooler than todays low-mid 70`s. Sat should be dry with low end chance of showers but will probably just see some clouds and sun at times. For Sun/Mon period, it still looks like a trough will slide through our area with scattered showers and also the possibility of a CZ behind the trough. Tue-Thurs could possibly be dry as weak high pressure at the surface looks to be over our area, though by late week, it looks like large/ deep and showery trough might be with us. So that means that our current and record dry spell could come to an end between tomorrow and next weekend, but we`ll see what happens. Highs for the weekend through next Thurs off the WRF range between mid 60`s to low 70`s. So it`s possible we could end up seeing some slightly below normal days here, but will still be mild none the less. So over all, looks like we`ll a little rain and Sun for tomorrow and the upcoming weekend and beginning of the work week.

Clouds, Sun, chance of showers.....

This morning 06zGFS still going with at least a chance of showers for around Wed time frame, but with the front pretty much fizzling out when it gets here, we may just end up with only a few sprinkles here and there. Other than that, tomorrow looks like another dry day with some degree of clouds and maybe some sun in the afternoon with highs near 70. And going off the MRF-MOS, highs on Wed look to be in the mid-upper 60`s. Thurs-Sat also looks and or should be mainly dry, and again, having some degree of clouds and sun as well have W-WNWLY flow aloft through the weekend with highs near 70 or maybe lower 70`s. A frontal system with perhaps a trough could possibly slide through here for late weekend into beginning of next work week.

MRF and GEM model also shows a chance of showers around mid week, but like the GFS, anything that falls should be pretty light.

Mainly dry with chance of showers for the weeekend...

Checking out the 6z/12zGFS this morning, our dry weather looks to continue through at least early next week, however the exception is a chance of showers and or maybe a few t-storms for Sat as a small trough/ small upper level low will be with us but also just a little south of us to keep our SE-ESELY flow over our region. This means that not only will the chance of convection exist over the Cascades through Fri into the weekend, but also looks to exist for the lowlands for the weekend. As mentioned though, we stay mainly dry. Highs off the 12zWRF and 12zMRF-MOS show low 70`s through Fri with highs in the upper 60`s to near 70 over the weekend then back to low 70`s for early next week, but think MOS is being a tad cool through Fri and we`ll probably see more like mid 70`s.

Comfortable weekend and week ahead....

Looking at the latest GFS models here, we know it`ll be cooler and much more comfortable over the weekend with highs in the 60`s/ 70`s with morning clouds and afternoon sun. But for the week ahead, we`ll, looks like we stay pretty much on the continued dry side of things with thicknesses around the mid 550`s and heights in the mid 560`s to near 570dm with highs again being mid-upper 60`s to low 70`s. Though around mid week there could be a chance of showers as a small trough drops over our region, but look to be mainly a few mountain showers as the flow aloft appears to go from N-NWLY for beginning of the week, over to more of a NELY wind by late in the week. On the flip side though, both 00zEURO and 12zGEM show some weak ridging of sorts that lasts through about Sat time frame. So the work should see areas of morning/early afternoon clouds with late morning or early-mid afternoon sunshine with daytime highs being a lot more tolerable.

Picture attached shows part of Heather Lake with snow beginning to melt around it.

Continued WARM & Mostly sunny

Good evening to all.

Seeing the latest models and also past couple days, it looks like WARM and mostly sunny weather will continue through the work week with highs each day over interior lowlands looking to be in the low-mid 80`s with some upper 80`s also possible later in the week.

And our dry weather will be due split-flow aloft with high pressure in the GOA and a cut-off low(see satellite images) off the coast of California. Main affect from this low for the work week looks to be to convection over the Cascades of Oregon and perhaps WA as well, but convective parameters the last several days including today continue to favor the OR Cascades where instability will be the most favorable. But it`s also possible some convection could fire over the SW WA Cascades, but that continues to look like a small chance, though debris clouds could certainly drift northward over WA Cascades like they did this evening. Out cut-off low to the south looks to slowly drift southward over the next sever days and eventually weaken further and moving inland over California late in the week to which it then appears to move into the inner mountain west for the weekend with possible convection firing over higher terrain areas.

So over all, and though WARM, it looks like a really nice week ahead. A chance of showers might be back in our forecast for the weekend with highs being a bit cooler, though still mild, but also not as warm as to what we may see through Friday. So enjoy the early summer weather, but also take it easy, take breaks, cool off and put on that sun screen!

Warm day & ''Clear air'' mode + Nice weekend

To start, today was a fabulous day here in the interior and over WA State as well thanks to building high pressure which looks to be with us through the weekend with highs in the mid 70`s and maybe even a few low 80`s under mostly sunny skies. So nice weekend shaping up!

Also to note and for those of you who have looming over the models last couple days, you know that there is the chance at some convective precip over what appears to be the SW WA Cascades and also the Oregon Cascades as CAPE values will be impressively high up around 1400j/kg and Lifted index values pretty low and at around -4, -5c. But moisture looks limited, but some will be present so am thinking high based afternoon t-storms with lightning being main issue. Don`t really expect them to come Westward off the Cascades as greatest instability will be over the higher terrain of the Cascades. But if anything forms, it looks to be scattered. So best chance from what was see this morning and yesterday as well, looks to be tomorrow afternoon and Sat afternoon. The interior lowlands of western WA will see mainly clear skies and mild conditions.

Ok, now to radar(see link and image). It appears the Seattle-WSR may be in ''clear air mode'' as it currently shows a blob of false precip moving up from the SW and heading toward the central sound. This more likely just a bunch of pollen/ dust, ect. OR! Could be a flock of birds flying in our direction from the south sound this evening. I have seen something similar before on a clear day of when it showed flase precip. So can`t always take what you see on radar for granted as it may show something there when in fact it`s not.

Enjoy the weekend you all!
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?atx_n0r+/2h/

More sunny and pleasant days this work week...

Checking out the models this evening, this coming work week.... Mon-Fri still looks to feature mainly sunny, pleasant days and highs in the low-mid 70`s with perhaps mid-upper 70`s to maybe 80 or so on Thursday.

Current surface map(see graphic) shows the dominating high pressure just to our SW that has been in control of our weather since about Friday. It also shows a weakening cold front headed our way as well. Though this cold front.....well cool front....since it will only have has us seeing slightly cooler temps with highs in the mid 60....looks to maybe give some LIGHT precip in the form of some possible sprinkles to the WA coast and perhaps the Cascades, but otherwise, lowland interior areas should remain dry as the weak front moves through here during the day Tues.

And then for the Wed through Fri now, or so it appears, models still show our ridge to amplify some with 500 heights rising into the mid 570`s with thicknesses in the low 560`s. So as mentioned, Thurs possibly looks like our warmest day of the week. For the weekend, our ridge might end up weakening as a trough look to maybe clip our region with highs back in the 60`s. But over all and with exception of Tues front, the week ahead looks pretty nice.

Pleasant weekend coming up.

Looking at the models this evening, not to much has changed as a surface ridge will be us tomorrow through the weekend and slowly building strength at the surface while flow aloft is near zonal and flat. So with rising thicknesses to near the low 550`s or in the 550`s and heights nearing 570dm, we should highs in the mid 60`s tomorrow and Fri with highs perhaps getting into lower 70`s on Sat or Sun as 850mb temps still look to rise to around +10c. Per 12zWRF, looks like we maybe could see some lower 80`s in the interior central sound for Mon afternoon, but that remains to be seen. GEM/EURO still showing ridging as well. So over all, should be a pleasant partly to even mostly sunny and enjoyable weekend. So get out and enjoy the sunshine! :o)

One more nice day, then showers & slightly cooler highs

Latest models from today including the 18zGFS, shows that Monday will offer one more nice day with highs looking to be in 70s in the interior with mostly sunny skies. Though by later Mon afternoon/evening, clouds should be on the increase as a weak system slides into our area for early Tue with coolish, but short-wave trough moving through during the day Tue. So will likely see showers at times with highs in the mid-upper 50`s to near 60 or lower 60`s as thicknesses lower to around 540m and 850mb temps drop to near 0c. Showers look to linger into Wed, but should be spotty as an area of high pressure is shown to build back over us from the West for mid-late week and into the weekend possibly with what looks to be pleasant afternoon highs with at least partly cloudy skies as heights rise back up into the mid 560`sdm and 850mb temps around +5, +6c. Flow aloft at 500mb from about mid-week through the weekend looks nearly zonal. So some mornings may and or might start out mostly cloudy, but should see some sun by afternoon time. So despite the one and only system coming through for the work week, the week it`s looks to be good shape. Should also say that from roughly Wed through Sun, the WRF shows forecasted highs to be in the low-mid 60`s. So as already mentioned, should be pleasant for about the second half of the work week.

High pressure for the weekend and maybe Monday to.

So looking at the GFS models here, a strong ridge of high pressure will be with us and over our region for the weekend and possibly lasting into Monday. Should also see highs in the upper 60`s to low 70`s to maybe a few mid 70`s as 500mb heights look to be in the mid to upper 570`sdm with thicknesses in the mid 560`s. 850mb temps during time not looking any different from previous runs and still show right around +10c. For Monday, it appears the our ridge may strengthen just a bit, but still seeing highs in the 70`s, though it appears there is some westerly flow aloft which will keep us from getting to warm. Our ridge weakens/ moves east for Tuesday as weak trough moves through our region and actually it looks like the main but weak area of low pressure will be just over the WA/ CA border, but still close enough to give us clouds and possibly a few showers.

For the longer term, GFS shows maybe a return of some what strong ridging, but looking more or less flat ridging, however it looks dry and pleasant from about mid week through the weekend possibly as 500mb heights don`t really drop all that much and stay in the 570`s and thicknesses in the 550`s to low 560`s. But if looking at the 00zEURO, it shows generally some what flat ridging through most of the five day work week. On the other hand, GEM and MRF model both show through to still come through around Tue/Wed time frame with some weak ridging after that. So we`ll just have to see how it plays out for next week.

One more weather system this week, then drying/warming

So looking at a few models here, we`ll have rain and showers at time for later tomorrow afternoon evening as a decent frontal system swings through for later Wed into Thurs(see satellite image). So probably see partly cloudy to filtered sunshine as the next system(currently heading toward the WA coast) comes ashore during the day tomorrow. So should be another day of similar high temps in the upper 50`s to 60 or low 60`s.

For Fri though, it still looks like we dry things out and also warming up as thicknesses rise into the upper 550`s with 500mb heights rising into the low-mid 570`s over the weekend. But as the GFS models would have it, they have weakend the ridge just bit to where we may have the possibility of seeing some high clouds at times. But should still remain mostly sunny with highs perhaps in the 70`s to maybe around, and dare I say....80 degrees. But folks, this is all at FACE VALUE, so take it for what it`s worth. Canadian model also shows moderate ridging over the weekend. But if you were to believe the 12zECMWF, it shows an amplified and very warm ridge right over the PNW for next Mon/Tue where as the 12z/18z and just now seeing the incoming 00z, shows a coolish trough dropping over us from the NorthWest with rain/ showers at times. So will continue to see how models do with the upcoming ridge.

Nice this weekend, but changes come later Sunday.

Looking at the latest GFS models....looks like our nice weather will come to end late tomorrow as a weakening cold front slides in here for Mon morning with a cool 528m/ 540dm 500mb trough following behind the front for late Mon evening into early Tue with 850mb temps dropping down to between -3 and -5c. And with this cool trough sliding through and 500mb temps of about -33, -34c....it will certainly make for a coolish couple of days under westerly flow aloft and showers at times. WRF-GFS showing highs only in the mid 50`s for Mon/Tue. Paradise Mt.Rainier will likely pick up a bit more snow with this incoming short wave trough that is shown to slide through our region. Looks like a short break for early Wed as a short wave, but weak high pressure slides through. But alas, should see increasing clouds by mid-late day Wed as a decent cold front is already making it to the WA coast during this time. The cold front slides through for Thursday with rain looking to turn to showers for later Thurs with more showers Fri as a short wave trough/ 500mb vort max is forecasted to slide through on Fri. And for the upcoming weekend, GFS models still on track for Drying/warming starting Sat with ridging becoming more strongly in place over PNW and building in strength for later Sun into Monday/Tue of the following week with mild/warm weather possibly. So we`ll see what happens.

Continued unsettled through this Thursday.....

Good evening to all.

Getting a look at a few models here, our unsettled and some what cool and showery weather will continue through Thursday. Now we currently have a small break this evening and are now in between systems with temporary clearing across parts of Western WA as the remnants of todays frontal systems continues to head away from us.

For tomorrow though, we should see increasing clouds/rain as the next vigorous system(seen circled in red) on inferred satellite, slides across our region and looks to be over us for during the morning/ early afternoon hours, with rain turning to showers by late in day with highs only being in or around the mid 50`s. And behind this incoming upper level piece of energy is a short wave trough with 500mb temps of -30 to -32c and thicknesses of 534meters that slides across our area for during the day Thurs. And like tomorrow, we should see plenty of showers around with high temps being pretty much similar to Wed with highs around or in the mid 50`s. And with a cold, yet small short wave/ vort lobe moving through, there could be that chance of an isolated thunder shower with any sun breaks we get on Thurs, if we do get any at all. But with that cold trough moving in, this means the airmass aloft will and or should be slight unstable. So showers will probably be most numorus when the short wave trough arrives.

Now for the weekend.....well starting Fri, highs look to be a little warmer and in the mid to maybe upper 50`s with improving conditions as a 1032mb ridge of high pressure builds toward our coast. So should see more in the way sun for the later part of Friday. For the weekend, that is looking pretty nice, at least so far in the models, as our ridge looks to be with us for both days with partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the low-mid 60`s both Sat and Sun. So over all, looks like a pretty good weekend in the making!