Cooling down some over the weekend..

Looking at some of the models here, it appears that today will be our last REALLY WARM TO HOT day here in the inland Puget sound region as high temp this afternoon once again look to be in the upper 90`s to maybe low 100`s. Tomorrow should be a bit cooler and not so hot with highs off the 12zWRF this morning showing mid-upper 80`s and then about the same for Fri with maybe a few low 90`s in the south sound region. Sun also looks roughly the same with with mid to upper 80`s. So some relief is in site for the weekend, but it`ll be a gradual cool down. Also, our ridge looks to weaken some over the weekend and into next week as an upper level low rides up the west coast coast and eventually being off the OR/WA coast by what looks to be the Wed/Thurs time frame. GFS/Canadian/EURO/GEM model show this upper level low for us as well and also about the same time frame....mid-late week. And if this holds true, then we possibly could have some convective showers over the mountains and maybe the lowlands to as this upper low looks to be having us in SE-ESELY winds aloft. So will have to see how this pans out. Also to note is that 500mb heights are in the 570`s/ 580`s during this time so should be in high 70`s to 80`s, but that is going out on a limb, but dose look to be that way for now.

Have attached a couple photos I took of the cumulonimbus clouds I saw yesterday on my way home that built up over the Cascades during the afternoon hours.

The HEAT BUILDS UP by mid-week

So now regarding the heat and our ridge. Looking through todays 6z through 18zGFS and tonights 0zGFS, they all basically show rather STRONG and amplified ridging that looks to continue through at least Fri/Sat. But the exception to this ridge will be the chance of afternoon/evening storms over the Cascades in which some could drift over the lowlands with few showers, but only briefly(Water vapor image from this evening). But this will do LITTLE in the way to help out with our ever so dry conditions. And adding flue to the fire is our soaring temps each day in which we will be really cooking by mid-late week as highs look to be up in the upper 90`s under mainly sunny skies. But tomorrow may very well perhaps be warmer or just as warm....upper 80`s to maybe 90. Someone on here mentioned about Portland reaching 90 today. But Mon will really be the start of the up hill climb as the HEAT GETS TURNED UP. And 00zWRF for Mon shows upper 80`s to maybe low 90`s with Tue showing low-mid 90`s, Wed-Thurs upper 90`s to maybe A FEW SPOTS seeing lower 100`s and Fri 'cooling' back down a bit with upper 80`s to low 90`s showing up for highs(image shown is for 2pm Wed). So for what the models are worth, it will be pretty darn HOT and pretty SUNNY so you will want to take many breaks and stay WELL HYDRATED as not to over heat.

Things might cool down a bit for the up coming weekend as low level temps and upper level heights lower a bit as models hint at some sort of brief split-flow late in the weekend into early following week. However in regards to the upcoming weekend, it appears there could be a chance of storms over OR/WA as an upper level low swings ashore somewhere to the northern west coast in which this may give us a decent chance as it has in SE-ESELY flow at 500/700mb. But since this out past 5 days, will have to see what models do with this forecasted upper level for the coming weekend ahead.

Chance of convection with WARM WEATHER to come

Still looks like there could possibly be some t-storms over the Cascades and maybe over the lowlands for Sun afternoon as 12zWRF shows CAPE of about 1600-1800j/kg(12z img is for 5pm Sun) with SREF model showing CAPE of around 2500j/kg over Cascades and lowlands. LI`s pretty low across the Western Wa lowlands as they are showing -4, -5c. And SREF model also showing 1000-2000j/kg MLCAPE & MUCAPE as well. Though lapse rates are pretty small and showing about a 3c/km, so not really a good thing to see when wanting t-storms. On the other hand though, both 6z/12GFS models as well as last nights 00zGFS, does still bring a weak vort max through during the day today or into tomorrow, but not really seeing anything come in over the weekend. But any storms that do pop up over the weekend(best chance looks to be Sat, Sun & Mon) think it`ll likely be high based as the airmass at 850/700mb looks moderately moist with 500mb airmass looking some what moist. So main threat from any storms that show up will likely be lightning strikes if any do occur.


As far as our strong ridge goes, looks like it will hold strongly through possibly middle of next week as thicknesses look to be anywhere from the mid 570`s to lower 580`s. And with 850mb temps on the 6z/12zGFS showing +20 to +24c and 500mb heights in the 588 to 594dm range, we should likely be in or around the mid 90`s this weekend into early part of next week. And when looking at the 12z MRF-MOS for Seattle, it shows Mon/Tue being the WARMEST days with high of 88 both days where as the 12zWRF shows roughly about the same with highs in the upper 80`s to low 90`s for Mon/Tue and Wed as well. Now for later in the week, both GFS models show a surface and or upper level thermal low moving somewhere up the off shore waters of the OR/WA coast which looks to give us some SELY winds aloft which could bring us some showers/ convective showers, so will just have to see how this all plays out. So overall, looks like it`s going to be VERY WARM with lots of sunshine. So take it easy over the weekend and stay hydrated as much as you can.

Upper level low for Sun/Mon... then warming back up

An upper level low will move inland over Oregon tomorrow with shower chances and maybe some elevated convection as flow aloft will still be southerly. And 12z run off the WRF does show precip taking shape over the Cascades tomorrow afternoon along with possible showers over the lowlands. Highs off the 12zWRF for tomorrow show temps near 80, but given that it`ll likely be cloudy with at least some mid-high level clouds showing up with low clouds at the coast, I think what is shown on the 12z MRF-MOS of highs in the upper 60`s to maybe 70 seems more reasonable. Monday may even be more cloudier as the upper level low looks to be right over us and a much better shot at showers and also a tad cooler with highs in the mid 60`s. But for Tue-Fri period, both GEM/MRF and 12z Canadian/EURO models show a moderate ridge of sorts building toward and over our region during this period. So we should return to more sunnier weather during this time, but with SWLY flow aloft, there may be some morning low clouds in spots but should still warm up nicely as low level thicknesses look to be in the low 570`s with 500mb heights in the lower 580`s. Also, WRF shows highs in the upper 70`s to low 80`s for the Wed/Thurs period with highs slightly cooler on Fri with highs near 80 and then back to around the mid 70`s on Sat as the ridge breaks down and or slides eastward to make way for another possible trough and chance of showers.